Arana5418

Contender - Aeronauts - 8-24 (0.250)
7 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 32 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 7/100 Tier dominance: 13th (-1.0 SD) Projects as: Contender Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
12% of games
Shot %
30%

Per-game production (percentile within Contender)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 322.81 10330
57th
Goals 0.69 22
46th
Assists 0.31 10
16th
Saves 1.41 45
77th
Shots 2.31 74
55th
Demos 0.25 8
5th

League ranking (per game, among 1213 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Contender
Points322.81 #618 / 1213 #48 / 134
Goals0.69 #567 / 1213 #60 / 134
Assists0.31 #833 / 1213 #93 / 134
Saves1.41 #349 / 1213 #25 / 134
Demos0.25 #906 / 1213 #105 / 134

Season projection

High confidence

64% of the season is played (32 → ~50 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (18 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 10330 16141 16117 16117 16000 – 16234
Goals 22 34 34 35 29 – 40
Assists 10 16 16 15 12 – 20
Saves 45 70 69 70 62 – 77
Shots 74 116 116 114 106 – 126
Demos 8 12 15 13 11 – 19
MVPs 4 6 6 6 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 15 /100

From 31 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 290.7
Avg boost 53.0
Boost stolen / game 336.5
% time at 0 boost 5.3%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1453.6
% supersonic 10.4%
% time high in air 2.6%
Avg distance to ball 2983.2
% time attacking third 17.8%
Demos / game 0.3
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 28.9%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S25Prospect18 0.720.221.33 270
S26Contender31 0.680.291.45 291

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.68 0.72 0.67 – 0.76
Assists/game0.29 0.37 0.29 – 0.39
Saves/game1.45 1.44 1.3 – 1.53
Shots/game2.26 2.22 2.17 – 2.33

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Tankersrul S19Prospect 0.780.331.56 0.93
Rocketgirl_32 S23Amateur 0.840.291.62 1.05
Ducky S22Challenger 0.720.281.39 1.10
Boods S25Elite 0.620.311.24 1.11
Arana5418 S25Prospect 0.720.221.33 1.12
th3lofty S21Amateur 0.60.41.53 1.13
Rocketgirl_32 S24Amateur 0.660.181.53 1.16
Charlemagne S24Rival 0.710.391.39 1.18
Novarchite S17Prospect 0.670.221.44 1.20
dino_chick3n S24Challenger 0.670.331.19 1.20

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.