Which stats predict winning?

Each stat's correlation with a player's win rate (W/GP) across all 1,197 players. Higher = more associated with winning, and the bigger its weight in the Overall Rating. This answers "is it more important to score goals or make saves?"

StatCorrelation with winningWeight in OVR
MVPs/game
+0.50
23%
Goals/game
+0.47
21%
Assists/game
+0.42
19%
Shots/game
+0.38
17%
Shot %
+0.30
14%
Demos/game
+0.14
6%
Saves/game
-0.03
0%

Note: correlation isn't causation - e.g. saves often correlate weakly or negatively with winning because trailing teams face more shots. Weights use the positive part of each correlation (a stat that goes with losing doesn't add to a skill rating).

Advanced stats vs winning (ballchasing, ~450 covered players)

Advanced statCorrelation with winning
% time attacking third
+0.30
Shooting %
+0.29
Demos / game
+0.16
Boost stolen / game
+0.15
Demos taken / game
-0.13
Avg boost
+0.08
Boost / min
+0.07
Avg speed (uu/s)
+0.07
% supersonic
+0.06
Avg distance to ball
-0.05
% time high in air
+0.05
% time at 0 boost
-0.02

Insight: shooting %, attacking-third time, boost stealing and raw speed track winning; sitting at 0 boost and ball-chasing (low distance-to-ball) track losing.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.