Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 42–23 on series winners that day (64.6%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Ball Chasers over Gnomes | 50.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | HR Violation over Stick Bugs | 63.2%/game | Stick Bugs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Dik-diks over Electric Eels | 61.3%/game | Dik-diks 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over Bombers | 56.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | Surprise over Stream Rascals | 58.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Rollers over Squeaky Bandits | 72.2%/game | Rollers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Mustangs | 55.1%/game | Mustangs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Jellyfish over Hognose | 59.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Ponzi Schemers over Jesters | 64.1%/game | Ponzi Schemers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Eladrin over Legionarii | 53.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Cheese Pizza over Abyss | 52.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Kappa over Ice | 52.9%/game | Kappa 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Zorillas | 53.0%/game | Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Gallery Guild over Aeronauts | 52.1%/game | Gallery Guild 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Nebulae | 54.8%/game | Nebulae 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Sirens over Caterpillars | 56.2%/game | Sirens 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Helldivers over Whiff Shots | 50.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Piranhas over Okapis | 55.2%/game | Piranhas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Blacksmiths over Prism Proteges | 59.0%/game | Blacksmiths 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over Diamondback | 54.5%/game | Roly Polies 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Dark Matter over Gloom | 59.8%/game | Dark Matter 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tomcats over Turbulence | 54.7%/game | Tomcats 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Principales over Fairies | 51.7%/game | Principales 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tanuki over River Wolves | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Earth over Spastics | 50.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Koala Bears over Tic Tacs | 55.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Red Legion | 57.5%/game | Red Legion 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Honey Badgers | 56.5%/game | Honey Badgers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Hawaiian Pizza over Ankle Biters | 50.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Merchants | 51.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Blacktips over Card Dealers | 59.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Toucans over Stingrays | 53.6%/game | Toucans 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Chromatic Chaos | 53.0%/game | Gold Hoarders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Corals over Scarabs | 60.8%/game | Scarabs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Shade | 58.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Warthogs | 69.6%/game | Warbirds 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Hydras over Decuriones | 67.3%/game | Hydras 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Reef Gremlins over Ryujin | 60.0%/game | Ryujin 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Metal over Flailers | 60.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Spearmint over Panda Bears | 59.9%/game | Spearmint 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Aasimar over Dustwalkers | 56.9%/game | Aasimar 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Lions | 67.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Chew Toys over Meat Lovers | 55.3%/game | Meat Lovers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Boost Steal over Scribes | 56.6%/game | Scribes 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | All On Black over Threshers | 63.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Ocelots over Barracudas | 52.2%/game | Ocelots 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Hue Heroes | 51.4%/game | Mining Legion 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Gaboons over Centipedes | 56.5%/game | Centipedes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Nightfall over Quasars | 66.4%/game | Nightfall 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Jets over Lightning | 59.2%/game | Lightning 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Dracos over Centuriones | 60.6%/game | Centuriones 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Kitsune over Whisker Goblins | 55.7%/game | Kitsune 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Quads over Wind | 58.9%/game | Quads 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Polar Ice over Polar Bears | 57.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Howlers over Genasi | 62.6%/game | Genasi 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hippos over Tax Evaders | 50.7%/game | Tax Evaders 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Prowlers | 55.2%/game | Hot Wings 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Demo Chasers over Guards | 52.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Hammerheads over Dice | 52.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Giant Squids | 64.3%/game | Gorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Mosaic Maestros | 62.6%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Luna Moths over Fer-de-Lance | 54.9%/game | Fer-de-Lance 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Supernova over Dread | 63.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Nighthawks | 53.0%/game | Dogfight 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Werewolves | 62.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Kirin | 60.0%/game | Kirin 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Water | 60.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Grizzly Bears over Peppermint | 56.1%/game | Grizzly Bears 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Dragonborn over Sons of Ares | 50.9%/game | Dragonborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Giraffes over Pump and Dump | 52.0%/game | Giraffes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Middy Meowers | 54.6%/game | Cannoli 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Mages over Double Commit | 53.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Makos over Blackjack | 61.1%/game | Makos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Sloths over Krakens | 51.5%/game | Krakens 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Pixel Picassos | 72.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Forest Cobra over Black Widows | 53.4%/game | Black Widows 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Despair | 56.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Afterburners over Raptors | 52.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Basilisks over Legati | 61.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Tiny Terrors over Orochi | 51.7%/game | Orochi 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Fire | 62.9%/game | Fire 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Menthol | 64.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Goliaths over Peerless Scarred | 50.3%/game | Goliaths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Embezzlers | 64.3%/game | Leopards 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Gelato over Hellhounds | 62.9%/game | Gelato 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Commanders | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Great Whites over Kings | 51.7%/game | Great Whites 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Glacier Mint over Olympic Knights | 63.4%/game | Olympic Knights 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Blackbirds over Care Bears | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Eastern Brown over Lemurs | 52.1%/game | Lemurs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Battle Masters over Reapers | 65.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Helicoprions over Imperatores | 51.0%/game | Helicoprions 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Andromeda over Aces | 56.8%/game | Andromeda 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Nue over Diplomats | 50.7%/game | Nue 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Air Buds over Nightmare | 68.7%/game | Nightmare 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Cerberus over Double Mint | 51.9%/game | Cerberus 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Valkyries over Capybaras | 53.3%/game | Valkyries 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Long Beards over Leviathans | 65.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Super Clusters over Jokers | 50.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Lords over Gummy Bears | 51.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 1 | 0.0% | 60.2% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.