Prediction Report Card

Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.

Track record

60.2%
series called right
(328 of 545)
+10.2 pts vs coin flip
54.3%
individual games
the favorite won
0.246
Brier score (lower = better;
coin flip = 0.25)
better-calibrated than a coin
545
series graded
(3204 games)

Match Day 8 review

Went 42–23 on series winners that day (64.6%).

TierModel's pickEdge Actual resultVerdict
Amateur Ball Chasers over Gnomes 50.2%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Amateur HR Violation over Stick Bugs 63.2%/game Stick Bugs 3.0-1.0 × miss
Amateur Dik-diks over Electric Eels 61.3%/game Dik-diks 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Amateur Garlic Knots over Bombers 56.5%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Amateur Surprise over Stream Rascals 58.5%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Contender Rollers over Squeaky Bandits 72.2%/game Rollers 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Contender Fingus No Legs over Mustangs 55.1%/game Mustangs 3.0-1.0 × miss
Contender Jellyfish over Hognose 59.0%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Contender Ponzi Schemers over Jesters 64.1%/game Ponzi Schemers 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Contender Eladrin over Legionarii 53.1%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Contender Cheese Pizza over Abyss 52.8%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Contender Kappa over Ice 52.9%/game Kappa 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Contender Kodiak Bears over Zorillas 53.0%/game Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Contender Gallery Guild over Aeronauts 52.1%/game Gallery Guild 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Contender Wobbegongs over Nebulae 54.8%/game Nebulae 3.0-1.0 × miss
Contender Sirens over Caterpillars 56.2%/game Sirens 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Contender Helldivers over Whiff Shots 50.6%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Prospect Piranhas over Okapis 55.2%/game Piranhas 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Prospect Blacksmiths over Prism Proteges 59.0%/game Blacksmiths 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Prospect Roly Polies over Diamondback 54.5%/game Roly Polies 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Prospect Dark Matter over Gloom 59.8%/game Dark Matter 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Prospect Tomcats over Turbulence 54.7%/game Tomcats 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Prospect Principales over Fairies 51.7%/game Principales 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Prospect Tanuki over River Wolves 54.6%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Prospect Earth over Spastics 50.1%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Prospect Koala Bears over Tic Tacs 55.2%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Prospect Aetherborn over Red Legion 57.5%/game Red Legion 3.0-1.0 × miss
Prospect Hostile Takeover over Honey Badgers 56.5%/game Honey Badgers 3.0-1.0 × miss
Prospect Hawaiian Pizza over Ankle Biters 50.3%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Prospect Back Flips over Merchants 51.1%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Prospect Blacktips over Card Dealers 59.6%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Challenger Toucans over Stingrays 53.6%/game Toucans 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Challenger Gold Hoarders over Chromatic Chaos 53.0%/game Gold Hoarders 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Challenger Corals over Scarabs 60.8%/game Scarabs 3.0-1.0 × miss
Challenger Blitzars over Shade 58.1%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Challenger Warbirds over Warthogs 69.6%/game Warbirds 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Challenger Hydras over Decuriones 67.3%/game Hydras 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Challenger Reef Gremlins over Ryujin 60.0%/game Ryujin 3.0-1.0 × miss
Challenger Metal over Flailers 60.4%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Challenger Spearmint over Panda Bears 59.9%/game Spearmint 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Challenger Aasimar over Dustwalkers 56.9%/game Aasimar 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Challenger Insider Traders over Lions 67.7%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Challenger Chew Toys over Meat Lovers 55.3%/game Meat Lovers 3.0-1.0 × miss
Challenger Boost Steal over Scribes 56.6%/game Scribes 4.0-0.0 × miss
Challenger All On Black over Threshers 63.1%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Rival Ocelots over Barracudas 52.2%/game Ocelots 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Rival Mining Legion over Hue Heroes 51.4%/game Mining Legion 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Rival Gaboons over Centipedes 56.5%/game Centipedes 3.0-1.0 × miss
Rival Nightfall over Quasars 66.4%/game Nightfall 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Rival Jets over Lightning 59.2%/game Lightning 3.0-1.0 × miss
Rival Dracos over Centuriones 60.6%/game Centuriones 4.0-0.0 × miss
Rival Kitsune over Whisker Goblins 55.7%/game Kitsune 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Rival Quads over Wind 58.9%/game Quads 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Rival Polar Ice over Polar Bears 57.5%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Rival Howlers over Genasi 62.6%/game Genasi 3.0-1.0 × miss
Rival Hippos over Tax Evaders 50.7%/game Tax Evaders 3.0-1.0 × miss
Rival Hot Wings over Prowlers 55.2%/game Hot Wings 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Rival Demo Chasers over Guards 52.2%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Rival Hammerheads over Dice 52.9%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Veteran Gorillas over Giant Squids 64.3%/game Gorillas 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Drunken Dwarfs over Mosaic Maestros 62.6%/game Drunken Dwarfs 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Luna Moths over Fer-de-Lance 54.9%/game Fer-de-Lance 3.0-1.0 × miss
Veteran Supernova over Dread 63.4%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Veteran Dogfight over Nighthawks 53.0%/game Dogfight 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Praetoriani over Werewolves 62.8%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Veteran Tummy Tables over Kirin 60.0%/game Kirin 3.0-1.0 × miss
Veteran Pushwalkers over Water 60.4%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Veteran Grizzly Bears over Peppermint 56.1%/game Grizzly Bears 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Dragonborn over Sons of Ares 50.9%/game Dragonborn 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Giraffes over Pump and Dump 52.0%/game Giraffes 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Cannoli over Middy Meowers 54.6%/game Cannoli 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Veteran Mages over Double Commit 53.8%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Veteran Makos over Blackjack 61.1%/game Makos 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Elite Sloths over Krakens 51.5%/game Krakens 3.0-1.0 × miss
Elite Forge Defenders over Pixel Picassos 72.5%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Elite Forest Cobra over Black Widows 53.4%/game Black Widows 3.0-1.0 × miss
Elite Black-Holes over Despair 56.9%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Elite Afterburners over Raptors 52.4%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Elite Basilisks over Legati 61.9%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Elite Tiny Terrors over Orochi 51.7%/game Orochi 4.0-0.0 × miss
Elite Wheelchairs over Fire 62.9%/game Fire 3.0-1.0 × miss
Elite Teddy Bears over Menthol 64.0%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Elite Goliaths over Peerless Scarred 50.3%/game Goliaths 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Elite Leopards over Embezzlers 64.3%/game Leopards 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Elite Gelato over Hellhounds 62.9%/game Gelato 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Elite Frame Skips over Commanders 52.3%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Elite Great Whites over Kings 51.7%/game Great Whites 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Master Glacier Mint over Olympic Knights 63.4%/game Olympic Knights 4.0-0.0 × miss
Master Blackbirds over Care Bears 52.3%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Master Eastern Brown over Lemurs 52.1%/game Lemurs 3.0-1.0 × miss
Master Battle Masters over Reapers 65.1%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Master Helicoprions over Imperatores 51.0%/game Helicoprions 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Master Andromeda over Aces 56.8%/game Andromeda 4.0-0.0 ✓ hit
Master Nue over Diplomats 50.7%/game Nue 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Master Air Buds over Nightmare 68.7%/game Nightmare 3.0-1.0 × miss
Premier Cerberus over Double Mint 51.9%/game Cerberus 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Premier Valkyries over Capybaras 53.3%/game Valkyries 3.0-1.0 ✓ hit
Premier Long Beards over Leviathans 65.2%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Premier Super Clusters over Jokers 50.8%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie
Premier Lords over Gummy Bears 51.2%/game 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) – tie

Hit rate by match day

Match DaySeriesThat dayCumulative
Match Day 1 67 49.3% 49.3%
Match Day 2 68 60.3% 54.8%
Match Day 3 75 56.0% 55.2%
Match Day 4 65 66.2% 57.8%
Match Day 5 70 70.0% 60.3%
Match Day 6 65 52.3% 59.0%
Match Day 7 69 63.8% 59.7%
Match Day 8 65 64.6% 60.3%
Match Day 9 1 0.0% 60.2%

Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.