Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).
Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.
Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.
Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.
| Stat | Per game | Total | Percentile in tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 426.18 | 11933 |
|
| Goals | 0.89 | 25 |
|
| Assists | 0.82 | 23 |
|
| Saves | 1.96 | 55 |
|
| Shots | 2.36 | 66 |
|
| Demos | 0.61 | 17 |
|
| Stat | Per game | Overall rank | Rank in Rival |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 426.18 | #48 / 1215 | #6 / 164 |
| Goals | 0.89 | #256 / 1215 | #35 / 164 |
| Assists | 0.82 | #76 / 1215 | #9 / 164 |
| Saves | 1.96 | #41 / 1215 | #6 / 164 |
| Demos | 0.61 | #749 / 1215 | #112 / 164 |
56% of the season is played (28 → ~50 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (8 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.
| Stat | Now | Pace | Projected (season) | Projected (all data) | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 11933 | 21309 | 20893 | 20893 | 20739 – 21047 |
| Goals | 25 | 45 | 44 | 45 | 37 – 51 |
| Assists | 23 | 41 | 40 | 37 | 33 – 46 |
| Saves | 55 | 98 | 95 | 97 | 85 – 105 |
| Shots | 66 | 118 | 119 | 125 | 107 – 130 |
| Demos | 17 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 26 – 39 |
| MVPs | 9 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 11 – 19 |
From 24 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.
| Boost / min | 406.6 |
| Avg boost | 58.3 |
| Boost stolen / game | 493.1 |
| % time at 0 boost | 7.5% |
| Avg speed (uu/s) | 1501.3 |
| % supersonic | 12.0% |
| % time high in air | 4.7% |
| Avg distance to ball | 2970.1 |
| % time attacking third | 18.3% |
| Demos / game | 0.7 |
| Demos taken / game | 0.9 |
| Shooting % | 32.6% |
| Season | Tier | Games | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Boost/min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S25 | Rival | 8 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 1.75 | 401 |
| S26 | Rival | 24 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 2.04 | 407 |
Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.
| Stat | This season | Comparables median | Typical range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals/game | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.79 – 0.9 |
| Assists/game | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.62 – 0.71 |
| Saves/game | 2.04 | 1.85 | 1.78 – 2.0 |
| Shots/game | 2.42 | 2.5 | 2.35 – 2.72 |
Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.
| Player | Season | Tier | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Similarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DribblingPenguin | S24 | Elite | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.89 | 0.96 |
| PayloSoul | S14 | Master | 0.88 | 0.62 | 2.0 | 1.10 |
| GrandPlat | S23 | Elite | 0.84 | 0.62 | 1.84 | 1.16 |
| Chillin | S26 | Veteran | 0.94 | 0.62 | 2.12 | 1.18 |
| itzmoose | S25 | Veteran | 0.83 | 0.72 | 2.0 | 1.18 |
| Shxde._. | S23 | Elite | 0.79 | 0.71 | 1.88 | 1.22 |
| Fenrir | S25 | Rival | 0.77 | 0.77 | 2.23 | 1.29 |
| StickisBad | S20 | Prospect | 0.93 | 0.68 | 1.79 | 1.32 |
| Ken Whiffey Jr. | S25 | Veteran | 0.89 | 0.7 | 1.76 | 1.36 |
| AlphaChuck | S23 | Elite | 0.9 | 0.68 | 1.78 | 1.38 |
Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.