BulletNote

Prospect - Diamondback - 4-5 (0.444)
17 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 9 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 17/100 Tier dominance: 8th (-1.4 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
0
0% of games
Shot %
29%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 267.0 2403
14th
Goals 0.44 4
12th
Assists 0.44 4
34th
Saves 1.22 11
53rd
Shots 1.56 14
5th
Demos 0.44 4
12th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points267.0 #865 / 1215 #114 / 161
Goals0.44 #847 / 1215 #117 / 161
Assists0.44 #648 / 1215 #86 / 161
Saves1.22 #555 / 1215 #63 / 161
Demos0.44 #854 / 1215 #117 / 161

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (9 → ~15 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (155 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 2403 4005 4185 4185 4122 – 4247
Goals 4 7 7 7 5 – 10
Assists 4 7 7 7 4 – 9
Saves 11 18 18 18 14 – 22
Shots 14 23 26 25 21 – 31
Demos 4 7 8 7 5 – 11
MVPs 0 0 0 0 0 – 1

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

From 9 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Not enough replays for an Advanced OVR yet.

Boost / min 256.0
Avg boost 53.2
Boost stolen / game 296.8
% time at 0 boost 7.1%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1462.5
% supersonic 5.9%
% time high in air 1.4%
Avg distance to ball 3141.4
% time attacking third 19.0%
Demos / game 0.4
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 27.8%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S21Challenger4 0.250.751.75 283
S22Challenger14 0.431.01.36 255
S23Challenger53 0.660.641.15 235
S24Challenger37 0.70.511.32 266
S25Prospect51 0.610.351.24 255
S26Prospect9 0.440.441.22 256

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~35 OVR High confidence — inferred from 227 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 17.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)32091161-1389 46% 313
RSC (official)229-8 53% 297
Non-RSC ranked 3v322771-87 45% 281
Non-RSC other29601081-1294 46% 316

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.44 0.53 0.45 – 0.61
Assists/game0.44 0.47 0.38 – 0.55
Saves/game1.22 1.12 1.03 – 1.2
Shots/game1.56 1.8 1.61 – 1.89

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
BulletNote S25Prospect 0.610.351.24 1.20
Ty (Arcus) S17Veteran 0.50.61.3 1.20
Bird Queen <3 S25Veteran 0.320.61.48 1.32
w0odhou5e S13Amateur 0.550.481.03 1.34
DefNotMongo. S24Prospect 0.710.381.14 1.47
perk_at_play S14Prospect 0.50.251.12 1.50
chrisofspades S24Amateur 0.530.51.0 1.50
DefNotMongo. S23Prospect 0.670.51.04 1.52
BulletNote S24Challenger 0.70.511.32 1.53
CosmicFlames. S23Veteran 0.250.381.12 1.55

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.