EthanAll01

Rival - Lightning - 6-2 (0.750)
56 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 8 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 56/100 Tier dominance: 78th (+0.7 SD) Projects as: Rival Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
3
38% of games
Shot %
28%

Per-game production (percentile within Rival)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 391.62 3133
83rd
Goals 0.88 7
66th
Assists 0.5 4
37th
Saves 1.5 12
71st
Shots 3.12 25
87th
Demos 0.38 3
5th

League ranking (per game, among 1213 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Rival
Points391.62 #158 / 1213 #22 / 164
Goals0.88 #286 / 1213 #42 / 164
Assists0.5 #509 / 1213 #74 / 164
Saves1.5 #241 / 1213 #33 / 164
Demos0.38 #874 / 1213 #126 / 164

Season projection

Low confidence

56% of the season is played (8 → ~14 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (18 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 3133 5483 5338 5338 5268 – 5409
Goals 7 12 12 11 9 – 15
Assists 4 7 7 9 4 – 10
Saves 12 21 21 19 16 – 25
Shots 25 44 42 41 36 – 48
Demos 3 5 7 6 4 – 10
MVPs 3 5 5 5 3 – 6

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

From 8 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Not enough replays for an Advanced OVR yet.

Boost / min 427.2
Avg boost 48.4
Boost stolen / game 631.9
% time at 0 boost 12.5%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1601.7
% supersonic 18.3%
% time high in air 5.5%
Avg distance to ball 2922.1
% time attacking third 23.0%
Demos / game 0.4
Demos taken / game 1.1
Shooting % 27.9%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S25Veteran18 0.560.940.89 396
S26Rival8 0.880.51.5 427

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.88 0.85 0.81 – 0.92
Assists/game0.5 0.52 0.44 – 0.58
Saves/game1.5 1.46 1.37 – 1.53
Shots/game3.12 3.03 2.91 – 3.17

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
illuzhn S23Elite 0.70.611.42 1.09
gxcid S24Rival 0.940.541.61 1.15
solar722 S24Master 0.850.441.56 1.21
Frijole S24Master 0.820.511.37 1.23
Arkcus S23Premier 0.840.591.53 1.33
Taelo S19Premier 0.810.381.5 1.35
daysil S25Elite 0.850.581.23 1.41
halibut907 S23Veteran 0.820.591.59 1.42
yRoxyy S17Veteran 1.120.51.62 1.44
Spooky S21Master 0.910.481.87 1.44

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.