Illusionchaos

Prospect - Back Flips - 22-10 (0.688)
22 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 32 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 22/100 Tier dominance: 44th (-0.2 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
5
16% of games
Shot %
37%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 305.25 9768
30th
Goals 0.81 26
59th
Assists 0.62 20
71st
Saves 0.84 27
11th
Shots 2.19 70
33rd
Demos 0.78 25
40th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points305.25 #727 / 1215 #93 / 161
Goals0.81 #372 / 1215 #54 / 161
Assists0.62 #297 / 1215 #38 / 161
Saves0.84 #858 / 1215 #116 / 161
Demos0.78 #609 / 1215 #80 / 161

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (32 → ~53 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (175 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 9768 16178 16285 16285 16157 – 16412
Goals 26 43 43 43 36 – 49
Assists 20 33 33 32 27 – 38
Saves 27 45 46 47 39 – 53
Shots 70 116 117 119 106 – 128
Demos 25 41 42 42 35 – 49
MVPs 5 8 8 8 5 – 11

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 13 /100

From 29 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 339.8
Avg boost 49.5
Boost stolen / game 340.6
% time at 0 boost 15.7%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1502.0
% supersonic 10.1%
% time high in air 3.3%
Avg distance to ball 3242.6
% time attacking third 18.3%
Demos / game 0.8
Demos taken / game 1.2
Shooting % 35.7%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Prospect26 0.620.350.96 362
S21Prospect4 0.50.250.5 362
S23Prospect60 1.00.520.98 345
S24Challenger34 0.560.381.38 316
S25Prospect55 0.870.641.36 356
S26Prospect29 0.690.620.83 340

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.