Medicmac121

Amateur - Bombers - 18-14 (0.562)
5 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 32 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 5/100 Tier dominance: 96th (+1.7 SD) Projects as: Contender ↑ Overskilled for Amateur Role: Striker / Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
8
25% of games
Shot %
47%

Per-game production (percentile within Amateur)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 340.66 10901
72nd
Goals 1.16 37
83rd
Assists 0.66 21
83rd
Saves 0.81 26
45th
Shots 2.47 79
68th
Demos 1.06 34
77th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Amateur
Points340.66 #496 / 1215 #13 / 61
Goals1.16 #57 / 1215 #8 / 61
Assists0.66 #257 / 1215 #8 / 61
Saves0.81 #871 / 1215 #26 / 61
Demos1.06 #353 / 1215 #11 / 61

Season projection

High confidence

69% of the season is played (32 → ~46 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (122 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 10901 15670 15547 15547 15446 – 15649
Goals 37 53 52 52 46 – 58
Assists 21 30 30 29 25 – 34
Saves 26 37 38 37 33 – 43
Shots 79 114 112 113 104 – 121
Demos 34 49 48 49 42 – 53
MVPs 8 12 11 11 9 – 14

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 91 /100

From 28 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 460.6
Avg boost 44.8
Boost stolen / game 545.6
% time at 0 boost 21.0%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1516.0
% supersonic 12.9%
% time high in air 2.3%
Avg distance to ball 3108.6
% time attacking third 22.2%
Demos / game 1.1
Demos taken / game 0.9
Shooting % 54.6%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S22Amateur8 1.120.620.25 414
S23Amateur25 0.680.320.6 397
S24Amateur44 0.840.430.73 452
S25Amateur45 0.690.510.76 419
S26Amateur28 1.110.570.79 461

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.