Phelpsy

Elite - Teddy Bears - 20-14 (0.588)
85 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 34 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 85/100 Tier dominance: 90th (+1.5 SD) Projects as: Elite Role: Playmaker / Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
7
21% of games
Shot %
29%

Per-game production (percentile within Elite)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 386.38 13137
75th
Goals 0.94 32
81st
Assists 0.88 30
93rd
Saves 1.24 42
30th
Shots 3.24 110
88th
Demos 1.71 58
91st

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Elite
Points386.38 #181 / 1215 #32 / 179
Goals0.94 #204 / 1215 #25 / 179
Assists0.88 #51 / 1215 #9 / 179
Saves1.24 #542 / 1215 #90 / 179
Demos1.71 #91 / 1215 #11 / 179

Season projection

Medium confidence

56% of the season is played (34 → ~60 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (195 games across 6 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 13137 23183 23025 23025 22863 – 23188
Goals 32 56 56 56 48 – 64
Assists 30 53 51 51 44 – 59
Saves 42 74 75 75 66 – 84
Shots 110 194 191 190 176 – 205
Demos 58 102 99 100 89 – 110
MVPs 7 12 12 12 8 – 16

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 66 /100

From 30 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 419.5
Avg boost 45.4
Boost stolen / game 549.6
% time at 0 boost 14.6%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1513.8
% supersonic 13.0%
% time high in air 3.8%
Avg distance to ball 2785.2
% time attacking third 21.7%
Demos / game 1.7
Demos taken / game 1.2
Shooting % 25.4%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Elite20 0.90.51.5 388
S21Elite12 1.00.331.08 415
S22Elite8 0.750.50.5 365
S23Elite45 0.620.561.6 390
S24Elite62 0.840.61.36 376
S25Elite48 0.940.671.1 398
S26Elite30 0.90.831.2 420

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~49 OVR High confidence — inferred from 1428 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 85.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)65002415-2693 47% 327
RSC (official)4911-22 33% 310
Non-RSC ranked 3v31428551-554 50% 304
Non-RSC other50231853-2117 47% 334

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.9 0.95 0.88 – 1.02
Assists/game0.83 0.74 0.69 – 0.81
Saves/game1.2 1.25 1.14 – 1.41
Shots/game3.3 3.07 2.9 – 3.25

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
S_ckz S24Veteran 1.020.81.17 0.93
Billy_Man_Fi3h S21Veteran 1.060.881.25 1.01
BirdTerd999 S21Prospect 1.00.91.26 1.20
DribblingPenguin S21Veteran 1.00.751.25 1.23
7aco104 S25Challenger 0.890.741.09 1.27
Just Kraze S22Master 1.070.931.09 1.30
Squirrel S24Challenger 0.830.691.33 1.31
WinterMajorChamp S25Master 1.040.731.23 1.32
BaronTac0 S23Elite 0.770.691.23 1.38
J. S20Elite 0.70.81.2 1.38

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.