R1PP_LLAMA5

Challenger - Toucans - 20-16 (0.556)
41 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 36 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 41/100 Tier dominance: 75th (+0.6 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
10
28% of games
Shot %
35%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 353.22 12716
62nd
Goals 0.89 32
72nd
Assists 0.58 21
59th
Saves 0.94 34
11th
Shots 2.56 92
57th
Demos 1.11 40
68th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points353.22 #397 / 1215 #50 / 166
Goals0.89 #261 / 1215 #37 / 166
Assists0.58 #386 / 1215 #53 / 166
Saves0.94 #812 / 1215 #119 / 166
Demos1.11 #323 / 1215 #42 / 166

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (36 → ~60 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). . Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) 80% range
Points 12716 21193 21141 20995 – 21288
Goals 32 53 53 46 – 60
Assists 21 35 35 29 – 41
Saves 34 57 58 50 – 66
Shots 92 153 153 141 – 166
Demos 40 67 66 58 – 74
MVPs 10 17 16 12 – 20

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 54 /100

From 31 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 390.8
Avg boost 52.0
Boost stolen / game 404.7
% time at 0 boost 13.1%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1530.4
% supersonic 13.4%
% time high in air 5.1%
Avg distance to ball 3162.7
% time attacking third 18.7%
Demos / game 1.0
Demos taken / game 1.0
Shooting % 35.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S25Rival4 0.51.251.25 429
S26Challenger31 0.90.581.0 391

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.9 0.85 0.8 – 0.91
Assists/game0.58 0.58 0.53 – 0.62
Saves/game1.0 1.07 1.0 – 1.1
Shots/game2.55 2.6 2.42 – 2.67

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Beretta S25Elite 0.770.581.1 0.70
Vvreze S24Challenger 0.910.561.1 0.80
KorusRay S25Contender 1.00.620.84 0.82
CN Tyson S23Challenger 0.850.621.0 0.89
Swanny2.0 S23Rival 0.850.71.05 0.89
TXAggie S17Challenger 1.00.621.0 0.96
xxDaddysHerexx S25Challenger 0.80.611.07 0.96
Oddtrip S24Elite 0.80.691.05 0.97
Taiyo S24Elite 0.870.531.22 1.00
AquaP S22Veteran 0.820.440.94 1.01

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.