SludgeMixFuzz

Prospect - Fairies - 7-11 (0.389)
19 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 18 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 19/100 Tier dominance: 21st (-1.0 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
1
6% of games
Shot %
23%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 353.0 6354
65th
Goals 0.39 7
10th
Assists 0.5 9
41st
Saves 1.67 30
93rd
Shots 1.72 31
11th
Demos 1.39 25
88th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points353.0 #399 / 1215 #47 / 161
Goals0.39 #877 / 1215 #120 / 161
Assists0.5 #516 / 1215 #71 / 161
Saves1.67 #127 / 1215 #9 / 161
Demos1.39 #178 / 1215 #16 / 161

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (18 → ~30 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (157 games across 3 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 6354 10590 10507 10507 10407 – 10607
Goals 7 12 13 13 9 – 17
Assists 9 15 15 15 11 – 19
Saves 30 50 48 48 42 – 55
Shots 31 52 54 54 47 – 62
Demos 25 42 40 44 34 – 46
MVPs 1 2 2 2 1 – 4

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 38 /100

From 15 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 331.9
Avg boost 48.5
Boost stolen / game 620.8
% time at 0 boost 9.8%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1462.5
% supersonic 9.8%
% time high in air 3.0%
Avg distance to ball 3121.0
% time attacking third 21.2%
Demos / game 1.3
Demos taken / game 1.2
Shooting % 25.0%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S23Prospect56 0.750.430.95 314
S24Challenger49 0.530.571.33 328
S25Prospect52 0.580.481.33 330
S26Prospect15 0.470.531.4 332

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.47 0.57 0.5 – 0.61
Assists/game0.53 0.5 0.46 – 0.57
Saves/game1.4 1.4 1.29 – 1.46
Shots/game2.0 2.11 1.93 – 2.23

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Pure_Pusher S25Challenger 0.510.451.41 0.96
Shepherd S24Master 0.570.61.26 1.03
oBlueyRL S25Challenger 0.570.491.35 1.06
Chis S24Veteran 0.610.641.25 1.06
Tryhard goblin S21Rival 0.450.51.5 1.09
blindvisionary S13Challenger 0.50.51.33 1.12
JediPenguin_ S26Challenger 0.470.471.37 1.15
ExecutivePowers S25Veteran 0.460.321.46 1.16
Chung S18Rival 0.640.551.18 1.17
Dooober S24Elite 0.580.551.4 1.18

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.