Thunderbolt

Challenger - Scarabs - 13-23 (0.361)
36 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 36 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 36/100 Tier dominance: 39th (-0.5 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
6
17% of games
Shot %
31%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 343.47 12365
53rd
Goals 0.75 27
47th
Assists 0.42 15
24th
Saves 1.53 55
77th
Shots 2.42 87
44th
Demos 1.14 41
73rd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points343.47 #472 / 1215 #62 / 166
Goals0.75 #455 / 1215 #66 / 166
Assists0.42 #706 / 1215 #96 / 166
Saves1.53 #228 / 1215 #28 / 166
Demos1.14 #305 / 1215 #36 / 166

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (36 → ~60 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (105 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 12365 20608 20599 20599 20454 – 20743
Goals 27 45 45 44 38 – 52
Assists 15 25 26 26 20 – 31
Saves 55 92 91 89 81 – 100
Shots 87 145 145 146 133 – 158
Demos 41 68 68 67 59 – 76
MVPs 6 10 10 10 7 – 13

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 20 /100

From 32 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 331.8
Avg boost 47.9
Boost stolen / game 387.5
% time at 0 boost 6.6%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1437.9
% supersonic 9.3%
% time high in air 3.4%
Avg distance to ball 2915.7
% time attacking third 19.2%
Demos / game 1.0
Demos taken / game 1.6
Shooting % 29.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Challenger5 0.80.62.0 303
S21Challenger8 0.750.51.12 347
S22Challenger28 0.680.711.36 344
S23Rival13 0.310.381.54 316
S24Rival56 0.550.480.88 318
S26Challenger32 0.750.381.62 332

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~41 OVR High confidence — inferred from 420 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 36.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)60112354-2363 50% 356
RSC (official)158-5 62% 340
Non-RSC ranked 3v3420135-151 47% 291
Non-RSC other55762211-2207 50% 360

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.75 0.72 0.67 – 0.77
Assists/game0.38 0.41 0.38 – 0.45
Saves/game1.62 1.52 1.48 – 1.67
Shots/game2.34 2.36 2.19 – 2.52

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
TDeez S22Veteran 0.810.421.54 0.63
CoachJimmy_TECT S22Contender 0.650.431.68 0.71
Blurrryy. S24Rival 0.640.411.56 0.77
lXploitl S25Prospect 0.820.411.52 0.87
i like bananas S25Veteran 0.670.441.44 0.90
VoodooMamaJuJu S26Prospect 0.790.381.66 0.91
Chicken S24Veteran 0.670.451.48 0.92
Bazzinga S22Rival 0.850.411.67 0.96
IVIGhost S21Rival 0.740.31.39 0.96
Lorak S22Challenger 0.670.481.48 0.97

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.