Valuedsquash465

Prospect - Ankle Biters - 8-16 (0.333)
18 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 24 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 18/100 Tier dominance: 12th (-1.2 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
3
12% of games
Shot %
31%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 318.38 7641
40th
Goals 0.62 15
30th
Assists 0.25 6
4th
Saves 1.58 38
89th
Shots 2.0 48
20th
Demos 0.67 16
30th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points318.38 #659 / 1215 #80 / 161
Goals0.62 #660 / 1215 #91 / 161
Assists0.25 #878 / 1215 #126 / 161
Saves1.58 #176 / 1215 #14 / 161
Demos0.67 #696 / 1215 #88 / 161

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (24 → ~40 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (77 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 7641 12735 12784 12784 12671 – 12896
Goals 15 25 25 25 20 – 30
Assists 6 10 11 12 8 – 15
Saves 38 63 62 61 54 – 70
Shots 48 80 82 80 72 – 91
Demos 16 27 28 27 22 – 33
MVPs 3 5 5 5 3 – 7

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 15 /100

From 22 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 367.8
Avg boost 49.3
Boost stolen / game 337.3
% time at 0 boost 12.9%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1540.1
% supersonic 16.6%
% time high in air 4.5%
Avg distance to ball 3006.5
% time attacking third 17.5%
Demos / game 0.7
Demos taken / game 1.1
Shooting % 28.3%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S22Prospect9 0.780.331.67 391
S23Challenger41 0.510.511.24 402
S24Challenger13 0.460.771.15 433
S25Prospect14 0.640.50.71 417
S26Prospect22 0.50.271.36 368

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.