Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).
Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.
Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.
Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.
| Stat | Per game | Total | Percentile in tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 338.97 | 11525 |
|
| Goals | 0.88 | 30 |
|
| Assists | 0.32 | 11 |
|
| Saves | 1.29 | 44 |
|
| Shots | 2.65 | 90 |
|
| Demos | 1.18 | 40 |
|
| Stat | Per game | Overall rank | Rank in Challenger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 338.97 | #511 / 1215 | #65 / 166 |
| Goals | 0.88 | #269 / 1215 | #39 / 166 |
| Assists | 0.32 | #839 / 1215 | #114 / 166 |
| Saves | 1.29 | #475 / 1215 | #62 / 166 |
| Demos | 1.18 | #279 / 1215 | #31 / 166 |
60% of the season is played (34 → ~57 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (155 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.
| Stat | Now | Pace | Projected (season) | Projected (all data) | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 11525 | 19321 | 19332 | 19332 | 19191 – 19472 |
| Goals | 30 | 50 | 50 | 51 | 43 – 57 |
| Assists | 11 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 15 – 24 |
| Saves | 44 | 74 | 74 | 73 | 65 – 82 |
| Shots | 90 | 151 | 150 | 150 | 138 – 163 |
| Demos | 40 | 67 | 66 | 67 | 58 – 74 |
| MVPs | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 – 13 |
From 30 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.
| Boost / min | 375.3 |
| Avg boost | 51.6 |
| Boost stolen / game | 425.3 |
| % time at 0 boost | 9.7% |
| Avg speed (uu/s) | 1513.4 |
| % supersonic | 14.9% |
| % time high in air | 2.9% |
| Avg distance to ball | 3174.6 |
| % time attacking third | 19.5% |
| Demos / game | 1.1 |
| Demos taken / game | 0.5 |
| Shooting % | 31.5% |
| Season | Tier | Games | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Boost/min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S20 | Challenger | 8 | 1.12 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 413 |
| S21 | Challenger | 8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.25 | 400 |
| S22 | Rival | 4 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.0 | 378 |
| S23 | Rival | 55 | 0.96 | 0.51 | 1.18 | 363 |
| S24 | Rival | 28 | 0.89 | 0.57 | 1.07 | 354 |
| S25 | Challenger | 56 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 1.36 | 381 |
| S26 | Challenger | 30 | 0.9 | 0.37 | 1.4 | 375 |
Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.
| Stat | This season | Comparables median | Typical range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals/game | 0.9 | 0.84 | 0.79 – 0.9 |
| Assists/game | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.4 – 0.47 |
| Saves/game | 1.4 | 1.46 | 1.4 – 1.5 |
| Shots/game | 2.63 | 2.54 | 2.48 – 2.68 |
Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.
| Player | Season | Tier | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Similarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai | S22 | Veteran | 0.86 | 0.45 | 1.47 | 0.92 |
| Ghostie | S22 | Rival | 0.95 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.00 |
| Kourses | S17 | Elite | 0.83 | 0.42 | 1.5 | 1.01 |
| ThatHomieGageTTV | S23 | Prospect | 0.9 | 0.45 | 1.57 | 1.01 |
| Its_Lost | S23 | Challenger | 0.75 | 0.38 | 1.38 | 1.03 |
| Dolphino | S19 | Premier | 0.91 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 1.04 |
| Gaw1f3d | S22 | Rival | 0.92 | 0.5 | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| Turtle_Supreme | S23 | Rival | 0.71 | 0.4 | 1.19 | 1.07 |
| Taiyo | S24 | Elite | 0.87 | 0.53 | 1.22 | 1.08 |
| spite | S25 | Challenger | 0.85 | 0.49 | 1.58 | 1.09 |
Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.