dinnindu

Challenger - Warthogs - 7-20 (0.259)
33 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 27 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 33/100 Tier dominance: 21st (-0.8 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
2
7% of games
Shot %
30%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 331.85 8960
44th
Goals 0.67 18
35th
Assists 0.52 14
48th
Saves 1.44 39
71st
Shots 2.19 59
23rd
Demos 1.0 27
56th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points331.85 #569 / 1215 #75 / 166
Goals0.67 #601 / 1215 #84 / 166
Assists0.52 #503 / 1215 #69 / 166
Saves1.44 #318 / 1215 #38 / 166
Demos1.0 #387 / 1215 #53 / 166

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (27 → ~45 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (70 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 8960 14933 14972 14972 14850 – 15094
Goals 18 30 30 30 25 – 36
Assists 14 23 23 23 19 – 28
Saves 39 65 64 62 56 – 72
Shots 59 98 100 97 90 – 110
Demos 27 45 45 45 38 – 52
MVPs 2 3 4 4 2 – 6

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 24 /100

From 27 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 350.8
Avg boost 41.4
Boost stolen / game 432.4
% time at 0 boost 13.2%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1418.4
% supersonic 8.8%
% time high in air 2.5%
Avg distance to ball 3161.4
% time attacking third 18.8%
Demos / game 1.0
Demos taken / game 1.2
Shooting % 30.8%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S21Rival14 0.640.641.0 337
S22Rival7 1.00.431.57 321
S23Rival26 0.810.311.08 345
S24Rival21 0.670.430.81 335
S25Rival9 0.670.441.11 343
S26Challenger27 0.670.521.44 351

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.