its_lost

Challenger - Aasimar - 8-8 (0.500)
32 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 16 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 32/100 Tier dominance: 15th (-0.9 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
2
12% of games
Shot %
26%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 324.62 5194
37th
Goals 0.56 9
23rd
Assists 0.5 8
41st
Saves 1.25 20
46th
Shots 2.19 35
24th
Demos 0.56 9
21st

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points324.62 #622 / 1215 #84 / 166
Goals0.56 #744 / 1215 #103 / 166
Assists0.5 #516 / 1215 #71 / 166
Saves1.25 #513 / 1215 #68 / 166
Demos0.56 #775 / 1215 #105 / 166

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (16 → ~27 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (109 games across 3 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 5194 8765 8826 8826 8733 – 8919
Goals 9 15 16 16 12 – 20
Assists 8 14 14 14 10 – 17
Saves 20 34 34 34 28 – 40
Shots 35 59 60 61 52 – 68
Demos 9 15 17 16 12 – 21
MVPs 2 3 3 3 2 – 5

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 11 /100

From 16 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 325.4
Avg boost 49.5
Boost stolen / game 353.8
% time at 0 boost 9.7%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1500.3
% supersonic 10.8%
% time high in air 3.4%
Avg distance to ball 3152.0
% time attacking third 19.8%
Demos / game 0.6
Demos taken / game 1.1
Shooting % 24.3%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S21Rival7 0.290.141.86 336
S23Challenger8 0.750.381.38 377
S24Challenger51 0.570.551.04 354
S25Prospect50 0.980.91.34 349
S26Challenger16 0.560.51.25 325

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~61 OVR High confidence — inferred from 1695 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 32.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)74032821-2780 50% 359
RSC (official)5723-23 50% 363
Non-RSC ranked 3v31695624-591 51% 323
Non-RSC other56512174-2166 50% 370

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.