junior1000gsxr

Rival - Demo Chasers - 19-17 (0.528)
49 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 36 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 49/100 Tier dominance: 33rd (-0.5 SD) Projects as: Rival Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
11% of games
Shot %
24%

Per-game production (percentile within Rival)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 296.33 10668
16th
Goals 0.53 19
19th
Assists 0.53 19
46th
Saves 1.31 47
44th
Shots 2.22 80
26th
Demos 2.17 78
96th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Rival
Points296.33 #772 / 1215 #114 / 164
Goals0.53 #783 / 1215 #109 / 164
Assists0.53 #488 / 1215 #72 / 164
Saves1.31 #467 / 1215 #75 / 164
Demos2.17 #28 / 1215 #5 / 164

Season projection

Medium confidence

56% of the season is played (36 → ~64 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (121 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 10668 18965 19194 19194 19042 – 19345
Goals 19 34 35 34 28 – 41
Assists 19 34 34 33 27 – 40
Saves 47 84 84 83 74 – 94
Shots 80 142 144 142 131 – 157
Demos 78 139 133 141 121 – 145
MVPs 4 7 7 7 4 – 10

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 21 /100

From 32 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 400.9
Avg boost 45.4
Boost stolen / game 493.0
% time at 0 boost 20.4%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1510.7
% supersonic 14.0%
% time high in air 3.4%
Avg distance to ball 3020.1
% time attacking third 19.3%
Demos / game 2.2
Demos taken / game 1.0
Shooting % 17.7%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S21Challenger10 1.10.40.8 398
S22Challenger13 0.540.621.54 434
S23Challenger22 0.460.731.14 449
S24Rival18 0.50.281.0 408
S25Rival58 0.660.451.19 425
S26Rival32 0.470.471.34 401

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.47 0.6 0.54 – 0.66
Assists/game0.47 0.46 0.38 – 0.55
Saves/game1.34 1.29 1.17 – 1.5
Shots/game2.25 2.13 1.97 – 2.33

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
junior1000gsxr S25Rival 0.660.451.19 1.25
97NOVA65 S25Challenger 0.60.41.5 1.37
CarnageWolfBite S20Rival 0.530.331.4 1.37
TheNio S22Challenger 0.790.51.14 1.37
DoorTK S21Master 0.580.581.58 1.38
rozi- S25Master 0.580.381.21 1.50
LoonaKami S24Elite 0.660.451.17 1.60
DoorTK S22Master 0.470.671.2 1.60
OmniMurders S24Veteran 0.680.421.32 1.61
Hirsch S25Master 0.590.461.5 1.61

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.