mtl-lucky

Challenger - Dustwalkers - 9-16 (0.360)
👤 Career - also played as luckyraizz
32 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 25 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 32/100 Tier dominance: 11th (-1.1 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
2
8% of games
Shot %
21%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 333.68 8342
47th
Goals 0.52 13
14th
Assists 0.24 6
5th
Saves 1.84 46
93rd
Shots 2.48 62
48th
Demos 1.36 34
82nd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points333.68 #554 / 1215 #71 / 166
Goals0.52 #786 / 1215 #114 / 166
Assists0.24 #902 / 1215 #126 / 166
Saves1.84 #60 / 1215 #9 / 166
Demos1.36 #198 / 1215 #23 / 166

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (25 → ~42 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (52 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 8342 14015 14046 14046 13927 – 14165
Goals 13 22 23 24 18 – 28
Assists 6 10 11 12 8 – 15
Saves 46 77 75 75 67 – 84
Shots 62 104 104 106 94 – 114
Demos 34 57 56 57 48 – 63
MVPs 2 3 4 4 2 – 6

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

From 3 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Not enough replays for an Advanced OVR yet.

Boost / min 423.7
Avg boost 49.2
Boost stolen / game 444.3
% time at 0 boost 12.1%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1573.1
% supersonic 17.2%
% time high in air 5.0%
Avg distance to ball 3149.2
% time attacking third 21.2%
Demos / game 0.3
Demos taken / game 0.7
Shooting % 9.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S25Challenger52 0.880.561.38 408
S26Challenger9 0.330.441.33 443

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.33 0.5 0.43 – 0.62
Assists/game0.44 0.5 0.42 – 0.53
Saves/game1.33 1.47 1.38 – 1.5
Shots/game2.44 2.4 2.17 – 2.66

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
hawktuahjohnpork S23Master 0.430.431.31 1.24
RL Rust S20Veteran 0.50.421.25 1.29
ExyRL. S24Elite 0.540.541.46 1.41
PackRL S25Elite 0.540.51.68 1.45
GoldFish S23Elite 0.420.621.42 1.45
aes. S14Premier 0.620.381.25 1.47
Verza S19Elite 0.420.581.5 1.47
Seth S23Elite 0.650.51.5 1.51
Colinn S18Elite 0.50.381.38 1.53
FIN0oo S19Elite 0.50.51.58 1.53

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.