mulliganisoup

Prospect - Piranhas - 5-8 (0.385)
20 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 13 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 20/100 Tier dominance: 25th (-0.8 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
1
8% of games
Shot %
24%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 323.92 4211
42nd
Goals 0.54 7
19th
Assists 0.31 4
10th
Saves 1.54 20
83rd
Shots 2.23 29
39th
Demos 0.54 7
22nd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points323.92 #629 / 1215 #77 / 161
Goals0.54 #773 / 1215 #108 / 161
Assists0.31 #851 / 1215 #120 / 161
Saves1.54 #218 / 1215 #21 / 161
Demos0.54 #785 / 1215 #103 / 161

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (13 → ~22 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (200 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 4211 7126 7149 7149 7066 – 7232
Goals 7 12 13 13 9 – 16
Assists 4 7 8 8 5 – 10
Saves 20 34 33 33 27 – 38
Shots 29 49 50 50 43 – 57
Demos 7 12 13 13 9 – 17
MVPs 1 2 2 2 1 – 3

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

From 9 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Not enough replays for an Advanced OVR yet.

Boost / min 365.4
Avg boost 47.0
Boost stolen / game 646.7
% time at 0 boost 13.6%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1486.0
% supersonic 11.4%
% time high in air 2.5%
Avg distance to ball 2838.7
% time attacking third 23.2%
Demos / game 0.4
Demos taken / game 0.4
Shooting % 31.6%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Contender11 0.910.361.09 403
S21Contender48 0.810.791.08 360
S22Prospect7 0.711.02.0 320
S23Prospect56 0.960.431.43 376
S24Challenger29 0.520.341.41 348
S25Prospect56 0.550.521.23 352
S26Prospect9 0.780.441.56 365

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~53 OVR High confidence — inferred from 577 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 20.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)59022311-2346 50% 383
RSC (official)3818-12 60% 406
Non-RSC ranked 3v3577219-231 49% 310
Non-RSC other52872074-2103 50% 390

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.