nate

Prospect - Dark Matter - 3-2 (0.600)
23 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 5 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 23/100 Tier dominance: 47th (-0.1 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
0
0% of games
Shot %
27%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 334.6 1673
51st
Goals 0.8 4
56th
Assists 0.0 0
0th
Saves 1.4 7
72nd
Shots 3.0 15
85th
Demos 3.0 15
98th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points334.6 #543 / 1215 #65 / 161
Goals0.8 #391 / 1215 #56 / 161
Assists0.0 #928 / 1215 #130 / 161
Saves1.4 #355 / 1215 #36 / 161
Demos3.0 #9 / 1215 #2 / 161

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (5 → ~8 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (103 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 1673 2677 2669 2669 2625 – 2714
Goals 4 6 6 7 4 – 8
Assists 0 0 1 2 0 – 2
Saves 7 11 11 11 8 – 14
Shots 15 24 23 23 19 – 27
Demos 15 24 20 22 17 – 23
MVPs 0 0 0 0 0 – 1

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

From 5 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Not enough replays for an Advanced OVR yet.

Boost / min 401.5
Avg boost 56.1
Boost stolen / game 578.2
% time at 0 boost 9.5%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1629.3
% supersonic 18.0%
% time high in air 1.3%
Avg distance to ball 3621.2
% time attacking third 20.8%
Demos / game 3.0
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 26.8%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S21Prospect14 0.790.641.36 396
S22Prospect11 0.910.551.36 407
S23Prospect44 1.090.751.3 413
S24Challenger5 1.20.41.6 369
S25Prospect34 0.590.761.15 387
S26Prospect5 0.80.01.4 402

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~44 OVR High confidence — inferred from 1168 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 23.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)87233638-3371 52% 347
RSC (official)4324-11 69% 393
Non-RSC ranked 3v31168421-442 49% 295
Non-RSC other75123193-2918 52% 355

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game1.09 0.97 0.92 – 1.02
Assists/game0.75 0.71 0.66 – 0.75
Saves/game1.29 1.29 1.17 – 1.43
Shots/game3.0 2.93 2.7 – 3.09

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Rob Belichick S22Master 1.170.751.25 0.98
Honey x Badger3 S25Challenger 0.960.671.24 1.02
Tsheg S24Premier 0.980.861.07 1.13
DoorTK S20Elite 1.290.671.54 1.20
Tman S22Master 1.00.571.6 1.29
oofitsfine S26Contender 1.090.621.28 1.30
Captain Daddy S24Veteran 0.950.811.39 1.44
Eclipse S24Premier 0.90.711.16 1.47
Kanye_West_ 2028 S24Veteran 0.920.611.42 1.50
yy S22Master 0.880.771.37 1.51

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.