pythagorjags

Prospect - Roly Polies - 11-6 (0.647)
24 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 17 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 24/100 Tier dominance: 58th (+0.2 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
24% of games
Shot %
26%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 312.18 5307
35th
Goals 0.71 12
43rd
Assists 0.71 12
83rd
Saves 0.88 15
16th
Shots 2.71 46
72nd
Demos 0.47 8
15th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points312.18 #687 / 1215 #86 / 161
Goals0.71 #547 / 1215 #75 / 161
Assists0.71 #182 / 1215 #23 / 161
Saves0.88 #848 / 1215 #112 / 161
Demos0.47 #845 / 1215 #113 / 161

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (17 → ~28 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (59 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 5307 8741 8806 8806 8715 – 8897
Goals 12 20 20 21 16 – 24
Assists 12 20 19 19 15 – 23
Saves 15 25 26 28 21 – 31
Shots 46 76 75 75 66 – 83
Demos 8 13 15 15 11 – 19
MVPs 4 7 6 6 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 11 /100

From 13 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 325.8
Avg boost 42.8
Boost stolen / game 463.9
% time at 0 boost 12.8%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1443.7
% supersonic 10.1%
% time high in air 2.7%
Avg distance to ball 3041.2
% time attacking third 21.3%
Demos / game 0.4
Demos taken / game 1.1
Shooting % 27.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S21Challenger4 0.00.252.75 272
S22Prospect4 1.250.251.25 334
S25Contender59 0.920.591.68 328
S26Prospect13 0.690.850.69 326

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~71 OVR High confidence — inferred from 1049 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 24.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)60852402-2377 50% 393
RSC (official)5825-20 56% 407
Non-RSC ranked 3v31049355-403 47% 339
Non-RSC other49782022-1954 51% 404

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.69 0.73 0.65 – 0.83
Assists/game0.85 0.74 0.71 – 0.83
Saves/game0.69 0.86 0.71 – 0.93
Shots/game2.54 2.44 2.31 – 2.65

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
BongoUnchained S26Rival 0.720.830.83 1.01
Heartlesswins S17Contender 0.750.880.5 1.06
Hawkish S25Elite 0.780.730.75 1.12
Surge S17Elite 0.640.710.93 1.16
-iZa- S20Rival 0.70.90.7 1.23
Droogin01 S21Contender 0.830.710.71 1.24
Citrus Stoned S21Challenger 0.670.940.78 1.26
dyl S19Challenger 0.670.920.83 1.27
FattyMcChef04 S21Amateur 0.811.00.69 1.30
nickm S13Veteran 0.730.821.09 1.32

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.