tazlien

Prospect - River Wolves - 2-6 (0.250)
20 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 8 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 20/100 Tier dominance: 27th (-0.7 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
1
12% of games
Shot %
20%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 219.38 1755
4th
Goals 0.25 2
7th
Assists 0.5 4
41st
Saves 0.88 7
15th
Shots 1.25 10
3rd
Demos 1.75 14
95th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points219.38 #933 / 1215 #128 / 161
Goals0.25 #907 / 1215 #124 / 161
Assists0.5 #516 / 1215 #71 / 161
Saves0.88 #850 / 1215 #113 / 161
Demos1.75 #76 / 1215 #6 / 161

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (8 → ~13 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (105 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 1755 2852 3130 3130 3075 – 3184
Goals 2 3 4 4 2 – 7
Assists 4 6 7 7 4 – 9
Saves 7 11 12 12 9 – 16
Shots 10 16 19 19 15 – 24
Demos 14 23 21 20 17 – 24
MVPs 1 2 2 2 1 – 3

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

From 4 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Not enough replays for an Advanced OVR yet.

Boost / min 379.5
Avg boost 46.6
Boost stolen / game 621.8
% time at 0 boost 10.5%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1417.0
% supersonic 11.0%
% time high in air 3.1%
Avg distance to ball 2994.2
% time attacking third 20.7%
Demos / game 2.0
Demos taken / game 1.0
Shooting % 0.0%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Challenger12 0.420.581.17 317
S22Contender34 0.850.561.21 344
S23Prospect34 0.680.51.06 341
S24Prospect15 0.670.271.0 349
S25Prospect10 0.20.70.6 341
S26Prospect4 0.00.751.0 379

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~30 OVR High confidence — inferred from 638 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 20.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)63102297-2794 45% 362
RSC (official)6621-30 41% 313
Non-RSC ranked 3v3638221-246 47% 274
Non-RSC other56062055-2518 45% 373

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.