vince_afterhours

Challenger - Chew Toys - 15-13 (0.536)
46 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 28 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 46/100 Tier dominance: 98th (+2.4 SD) Projects as: Rival ↑ Overskilled for Challenger Role: Striker / Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
9
32% of games
Shot %
43%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 439.93 12318
97th
Goals 1.29 36
98th
Assists 0.75 21
84th
Saves 1.32 37
51st
Shots 2.96 83
83rd
Demos 0.82 23
41st

League ranking (per game, among 1213 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points439.93 #27 / 1213 #4 / 166
Goals1.29 #25 / 1213 #3 / 166
Assists0.75 #119 / 1213 #19 / 166
Saves1.32 #448 / 1213 #64 / 166
Demos0.82 #570 / 1213 #78 / 166

Season projection

Medium confidence

53% of the season is played (28 → ~52 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). . Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) 80% range
Points 12318 22876 22350 22185 – 22516
Goals 36 67 64 55 – 73
Assists 21 39 38 31 – 45
Saves 37 69 69 59 – 78
Shots 83 154 152 138 – 165
Demos 23 43 44 36 – 51
MVPs 9 17 16 12 – 20

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 99 /100

From 28 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 437.9
Avg boost 52.0
Boost stolen / game 693.8
% time at 0 boost 11.9%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1564.8
% supersonic 14.7%
% time high in air 4.0%
Avg distance to ball 2527.7
% time attacking third 23.0%
Demos / game 0.8
Demos taken / game 0.9
Shooting % 44.0%

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game1.29 1.13 1.11 – 1.17
Assists/game0.75 0.71 0.66 – 0.75
Saves/game1.32 1.34 1.26 – 1.44
Shots/game2.96 3.1 2.88 – 3.25

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Rampage S25Challenger 1.110.721.19 1.04
nave S23Master 1.080.751.4 1.06
Jimbo S22Elite 1.170.671.25 1.08
KAYO S25Veteran 1.110.661.34 1.10
Plasma S23Master 1.240.831.44 1.19
TheDarkHero77 S24Rival 1.160.661.34 1.20
Foam S22Master 1.20.71.45 1.25
Dyloh(?) S26Master 1.280.691.41 1.26
Cognitixn S23Rival 1.130.711.36 1.27
Mike S18Veteran 1.250.751.5 1.30

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.