wolverine36535

Prospect - Aetherborn - 9-8 (0.529)
19 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 17 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 19/100 Tier dominance: 17th (-1.0 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
3
18% of games
Shot %
31%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 259.53 4412
11th
Goals 0.53 9
18th
Assists 0.24 4
3rd
Saves 1.18 20
48th
Shots 1.71 29
10th
Demos 0.82 14
42nd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points259.53 #881 / 1215 #118 / 161
Goals0.53 #780 / 1215 #109 / 161
Assists0.24 #904 / 1215 #129 / 161
Saves1.18 #601 / 1215 #69 / 161
Demos0.82 #580 / 1215 #77 / 161

Season projection

Low confidence

60% of the season is played (17 → ~28 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (163 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 4412 7267 7517 7517 7431 – 7603
Goals 9 15 16 15 12 – 19
Assists 4 7 8 8 5 – 11
Saves 20 33 33 33 28 – 39
Shots 29 48 50 49 43 – 57
Demos 14 23 23 23 19 – 28
MVPs 3 5 5 5 3 – 7

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 8 /100

From 13 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 380.0
Avg boost 50.9
Boost stolen / game 480.1
% time at 0 boost 12.6%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1456.6
% supersonic 12.1%
% time high in air 2.5%
Avg distance to ball 3236.7
% time attacking third 19.0%
Demos / game 0.7
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 27.7%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Prospect49 0.530.431.04 349
S21Prospect8 1.00.751.38 351
S22Prospect4 0.250.251.25 347
S23Challenger19 0.630.161.21 376
S24Challenger41 0.680.680.9 348
S25Prospect46 0.630.411.37 346
S26Prospect13 0.460.081.23 380

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~11 OVR High confidence — inferred from 2673 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 19.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)63272416-2573 48% 283
RSC (official)256-15 29% 254
Non-RSC ranked 3v326731087-1001 52% 242
Non-RSC other36291323-1557 46% 313

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.46 0.44 0.38 – 0.55
Assists/game0.08 0.25 0.12 – 0.28
Saves/game1.23 1.18 1.11 – 1.33
Shots/game1.61 1.8 1.53 – 1.94

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
BabyDino8453 S22Prospect 0.380.01.0 1.12
ZonaHOMI S25Challenger 0.550.181.27 1.21
Benjamen W. S17Prospect 0.50.251.12 1.27
Angry-Hermit S25Contender 0.650.281.12 1.37
Mysty S21Rival 0.360.091.46 1.40
AoS Arctic S18Elite 0.50.251.5 1.47
Saucy Rexy S21Master 0.330.111.0 1.51
TheFrostNL S22Rival 0.330.111.33 1.52
Irishhhh S24Veteran 0.340.261.11 1.53
StruttRL S26Prospect 0.580.351.12 1.55

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.