xmanyaknow

Rival - Howlers - 17-9 (0.654)
56 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 26 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 56/100 Tier dominance: 84th (+0.9 SD) Projects as: Rival Role: Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
5
19% of games
Shot %
28%

Per-game production (percentile within Rival)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 355.65 9247
61st
Goals 0.73 19
48th
Assists 0.88 23
96th
Saves 1.27 33
39th
Shots 2.62 68
56th
Demos 0.69 18
22nd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Rival
Points355.65 #376 / 1215 #52 / 164
Goals0.73 #512 / 1215 #70 / 164
Assists0.88 #50 / 1215 #5 / 164
Saves1.27 #503 / 1215 #83 / 164
Demos0.69 #683 / 1215 #105 / 164

Season projection

Medium confidence

56% of the season is played (26 → ~46 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (78 games across 3 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 9247 16360 16292 16292 16156 – 16428
Goals 19 34 34 34 27 – 40
Assists 23 41 39 39 33 – 45
Saves 33 58 59 57 51 – 67
Shots 68 120 120 121 108 – 131
Demos 18 32 33 32 27 – 40
MVPs 5 9 9 9 6 – 12

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 53 /100

From 22 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 439.0
Avg boost 47.1
Boost stolen / game 726.0
% time at 0 boost 14.1%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1514.2
% supersonic 12.5%
% time high in air 4.6%
Avg distance to ball 3085.2
% time attacking third 24.2%
Demos / game 0.7
Demos taken / game 1.3
Shooting % 28.2%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S23Rival47 0.870.720.85 400
S24Veteran12 0.830.920.92 384
S25Veteran19 0.580.471.47 398
S26Rival22 0.730.961.09 439

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.73 0.77 0.71 – 0.89
Assists/game0.95 0.82 0.75 – 0.93
Saves/game1.09 1.16 0.97 – 1.25
Shots/game2.5 2.7 2.5 – 2.83

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
EKA Luminous S23Rival 0.830.891.25 0.93
Wafe S25Elite 0.60.841.1 1.21
M1TNS S23Veteran 0.810.731.25 1.25
z2kay S20Rival 0.750.811.25 1.38
robotman321 S26Veteran 0.790.830.96 1.48
depressed vibez S22Veteran 0.830.781.17 1.49
Free. S19Challenger 0.750.880.88 1.51
Fish S14Rival 0.620.751.38 1.55
lurx bad at rl S25Rival 1.030.821.16 1.58
Bioeffect S21Rival 0.670.931.4 1.59

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.