Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 33–34 on series winners that day (49.3%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Bombers over HR Violation | 50.0%/game | HR Violation 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Gnomes over Electric Eels | 50.0%/game | Electric Eels 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Stream Rascals over Garlic Knots | 50.0%/game | Garlic Knots 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Surprise over Stick Bugs | 50.0%/game | Stick Bugs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Dik-diks over Ball Chasers | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Squeaky Bandits over Mustangs | 50.0%/game | Mustangs 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Abyss over Hognose | 50.0%/game | Abyss 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Eladrin over Ponzi Schemers | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Jesters over Jellyfish | 50.0%/game | Jellyfish 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Rollers over Legionarii | 50.0%/game | Rollers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Cheese Pizza | 50.0%/game | Cheese Pizza 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Kappa over Kodiak Bears | 50.0%/game | Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Helldivers over Aeronauts | 50.0%/game | Helldivers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Caterpillars over Nebulae | 50.0%/game | Nebulae 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Gallery Guild | 50.0%/game | Wobbegongs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Ice over Sirens | 50.0%/game | Sirens 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Zorillas over Whiff Shots | 50.0%/game | Zorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Spastics over Tic Tacs | 50.0%/game | Spastics 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tomcats over Diamondback | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Gloom over Aetherborn | 50.0%/game | Aetherborn 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Blacksmiths | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Principales over Piranhas | 50.0%/game | Principales 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | River Wolves over Hawaiian Pizza | 50.0%/game | River Wolves 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Merchants over Card Dealers | 50.0%/game | Merchants 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Earth over Koala Bears | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Turbulence over Roly Polies | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Dark Matter over Red Legion | 50.0%/game | Dark Matter 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Prism Proteges | 50.0%/game | Honey Badgers 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Fairies over Okapis | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Ankle Biters | 50.0%/game | Tanuki 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Blacktips | 50.0%/game | Back Flips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Flailers over Spearmint | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Warthogs over Corals | 50.0%/game | Warthogs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Shade over Aasimar | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Gold Hoarders | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Decuriones over Stingrays | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Reef Gremlins over Meat Lovers | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Scribes over All On Black | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Metal over Panda Bears | 50.0%/game | Panda Bears 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Scarabs | 50.0%/game | Warbirds 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Dustwalkers | 50.0%/game | Blitzars 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Lions over Chromatic Chaos | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Hydras over Toucans | 50.0%/game | Hydras 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Ryujin over Chew Toys | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Boost Steal over Threshers | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Quads over Polar Ice | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Lightning over Gaboons | 50.0%/game | Lightning 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Nightfall over Genasi | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Tax Evaders over Mining Legion | 50.0%/game | Mining Legion 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Centuriones over Barracudas | 50.0%/game | Barracudas 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Whisker Goblins over Hot Wings | 50.0%/game | Hot Wings 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Guards over Dice | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Wind over Polar Bears | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Jets over Centipedes | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Quasars over Howlers | 50.0%/game | Howlers 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hippos over Hue Heroes | 50.0%/game | Hue Heroes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Dracos over Ocelots | 50.0%/game | Dracos 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Kitsune over Prowlers | 50.0%/game | Prowlers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Demo Chasers over Hammerheads | 50.0%/game | Demo Chasers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Peppermint | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Nighthawks over Fer-de-Lance | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Dread over Dragonborn | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Pump and Dump over Drunken Dwarfs | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Giant Squids | 50.0%/game | Praetoriani 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Cannoli | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Mages over Blackjack | 50.0%/game | Mages 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Water over Grizzly Bears | 50.0%/game | Grizzly Bears 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Luna Moths | 50.0%/game | Dogfight 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Supernova over Sons of Ares | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Giraffes over Mosaic Maestros | 50.0%/game | Giraffes 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Werewolves over Gorillas | 50.0%/game | Gorillas 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Kirin over Middy Meowers | 50.0%/game | Middy Meowers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Double Commit over Makos | 50.0%/game | Makos 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Menthol | 50.0%/game | Wheelchairs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Raptors over Forest Cobra | 50.0%/game | Raptors 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Despair over Goliaths | 50.0%/game | Goliaths 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Embezzlers over Forge Defenders | 50.0%/game | Forge Defenders 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Legati over Krakens | 50.0%/game | Legati 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Tiny Terrors over Gelato | 50.0%/game | Gelato 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Commanders over Kings | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Fire over Teddy Bears | 50.0%/game | Teddy Bears 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Afterburners over Black Widows | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Peerless Scarred | 50.0%/game | Black-Holes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Pixel Picassos | 50.0%/game | Leopards 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Basilisks over Sloths | 50.0%/game | Basilisks 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Orochi over Hellhounds | 50.0%/game | Orochi 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Great Whites | 50.0%/game | Frame Skips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Nue over Nightmare | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Reapers over Diplomats | 50.0%/game | Diplomats 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Eastern Brown over Care Bears | 50.0%/game | Care Bears 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Imperatores over Olympic Knights | 50.0%/game | Olympic Knights 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Battle Masters over Andromeda | 50.0%/game | Andromeda 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Blackbirds over Lemurs | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Aces over Air Buds | 50.0%/game | Air Buds 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Glacier Mint over Helicoprions | 50.0%/game | Helicoprions 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Super Clusters over Valkyries | 50.0%/game | Valkyries 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Double Mint over Long Beards | 50.0%/game | Long Beards 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Lords over Jokers | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Capybaras | 50.0%/game | Gummy Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Leviathans over Cerberus | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.