Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 41–27 on series winners that day (60.3%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Surprise over Gnomes | 50.0%/game | Surprise 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over Electric Eels | 52.3%/game | Garlic Knots 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | HR Violation over Stream Rascals | 56.9%/game | HR Violation 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Stick Bugs over Ball Chasers | 52.3%/game | Stick Bugs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Dik-diks over Bombers | 52.3%/game | Bombers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Eladrin over Squeaky Bandits | 54.6%/game | Eladrin 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Rollers over Abyss | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Jesters over Fingus No Legs | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Mustangs over Jellyfish | 52.3%/game | Jellyfish 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Hognose over Legionarii | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Cheese Pizza over Ponzi Schemers | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Kappa over Caterpillars | 50.0%/game | Caterpillars 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Helldivers over Ice | 56.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Zorillas | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Gallery Guild | 56.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Sirens over Aeronauts | 56.9%/game | Sirens 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Nebulae over Whiff Shots | 54.6%/game | Whiff Shots 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Tomcats over Tic Tacs | 52.3%/game | Tomcats 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Diamondback over Hawaiian Pizza | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Blacksmiths | 54.6%/game | Blacksmiths 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Principales over Gloom | 59.1%/game | Principales 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | River Wolves over Hostile Takeover | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Spastics over Merchants | 50.0%/game | Spastics 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Card Dealers over Piranhas | 52.3%/game | Piranhas 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Koala Bears over Turbulence | 50.0%/game | Turbulence 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over Ankle Biters | 54.6%/game | Roly Polies 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Red Legion over Prism Proteges | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Dark Matter over Fairies | 52.3%/game | Fairies 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Tanuki | 50.0%/game | Tanuki 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Earth | 52.3%/game | Back Flips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Okapis over Blacktips | 52.3%/game | Blacktips 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Warthogs over Spearmint | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Meat Lovers over Corals | 52.3%/game | Corals 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Aasimar | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Shade over Decuriones | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Reef Gremlins | 50.0%/game | Insider Traders 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Flailers over Scribes | 50.0%/game | Flailers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Stingrays over All On Black | 50.0%/game | All On Black 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Panda Bears | 52.3%/game | Warbirds 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chew Toys over Scarabs | 54.6%/game | Chew Toys 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chromatic Chaos over Dustwalkers | 52.3%/game | Chromatic Chaos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Hydras over Blitzars | 52.3%/game | Hydras 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Lions over Ryujin | 50.0%/game | Lions 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Boost Steal over Metal | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Threshers over Toucans | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Lightning over Polar Ice | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Gaboons | 56.9%/game | Hot Wings 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Genasi | 54.6%/game | Mining Legion 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Nightfall over Centuriones | 52.3%/game | Centuriones 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Tax Evaders over Whisker Goblins | 50.0%/game | Tax Evaders 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Quads over Guards | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Barracudas over Dice | 52.3%/game | Barracudas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Polar Bears over Jets | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Prowlers over Centipedes | 52.3%/game | Prowlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Howlers over Hue Heroes | 52.3%/game | Hue Heroes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Dracos over Quasars | 59.1%/game | Dracos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hippos over Kitsune | 50.0%/game | Hippos 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Demo Chasers over Wind | 52.3%/game | Demo Chasers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hammerheads over Ocelots | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Peppermint over Nighthawks | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Fer-de-Lance | 50.0%/game | Cannoli 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Dragonborn | 50.0%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Dread | 52.3%/game | Praetoriani 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pump and Dump over Tummy Tables | 50.0%/game | Tummy Tables 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Mages over Pushwalkers | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Giant Squids over Blackjack | 52.3%/game | Giant Squids 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Grizzly Bears over Dogfight | 50.0%/game | Dogfight 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Luna Moths | 54.6%/game | Middy Meowers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Sons of Ares over Mosaic Maestros | 54.6%/game | Sons of Ares 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Supernova over Werewolves | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Giraffes over Kirin | 56.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Water over Double Commit | 52.3%/game | Double Commit 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Makos over Gorillas | 52.3%/game | Gorillas 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Raptors over Menthol | 59.1%/game | Raptors 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Gelato over Forest Cobra | 59.1%/game | Gelato 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Goliaths | 52.3%/game | Forge Defenders 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Legati over Despair | 54.6%/game | Despair 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Embezzlers over Tiny Terrors | 50.0%/game | Tiny Terrors 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Commanders | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Kings over Krakens | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Afterburners | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Black Widows over Hellhounds | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Pixel Picassos over Peerless Scarred | 50.0%/game | Peerless Scarred 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Basilisks | 50.0%/game | Black-Holes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Orochi | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Fire | 56.9%/game | Frame Skips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Sloths over Great Whites | 50.0%/game | Sloths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Air Buds over Eastern Brown | 54.6%/game | Air Buds 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Lemurs over Nightmare | 50.0%/game | Nightmare 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Care Bears over Imperatores | 54.6%/game | Imperatores 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Diplomats over Andromeda | 52.3%/game | Andromeda 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Olympic Knights over Blackbirds | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Aces over Reapers | 52.3%/game | Aces 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Nue over Glacier Mint | 52.3%/game | Glacier Mint 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Helicoprions over Battle Masters | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Double Mint | 56.9%/game | Gummy Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Long Beards over Jokers | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Valkyries over Lords | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Cerberus over Capybaras | 52.3%/game | Capybaras 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Leviathans over Super Clusters | 52.3%/game | Super Clusters 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.