Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 42–33 on series winners that day (56.0%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Gnomes over Stream Rascals | 51.7%/game | Gnomes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Stick Bugs over Electric Eels | 56.4%/game | Stick Bugs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over HR Violation | 55.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | Surprise over Dik-diks | 52.5%/game | Dik-diks 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Bombers over Ball Chasers | 52.3%/game | Bombers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Rollers over Mustangs | 50.2%/game | Mustangs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Eladrin over Hognose | 54.2%/game | Eladrin 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Abyss over Ponzi Schemers | 52.1%/game | Ponzi Schemers 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Jellyfish over Fingus No Legs | 57.1%/game | Fingus No Legs 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Legionarii over Squeaky Bandits | 54.2%/game | Legionarii 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Cheese Pizza over Jesters | 54.4%/game | Cheese Pizza 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Ice | 55.6%/game | Kodiak Bears 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Caterpillars over Aeronauts | 54.0%/game | Aeronauts 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Helldivers over Nebulae | 52.1%/game | Nebulae 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Zorillas over Gallery Guild | 56.5%/game | Zorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Sirens over Kappa | 60.7%/game | Sirens 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Whiff Shots | 54.0%/game | Wobbegongs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Spastics over Diamondback | 54.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Tomcats over Merchants | 52.1%/game | Merchants 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Tic Tacs | 56.2%/game | Aetherborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Principales over Blacksmiths | 55.6%/game | Principales 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Piranhas | 52.3%/game | Hostile Takeover 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | River Wolves over Gloom | 60.3%/game | Gloom 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Hawaiian Pizza over Card Dealers | 52.7%/game | Card Dealers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over Earth | 54.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Turbulence | 52.1%/game | Turbulence 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Koala Bears over Red Legion | 50.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Fairies over Prism Proteges | 56.9%/game | Prism Proteges 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Okapis | 57.1%/game | Honey Badgers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Dark Matter | 57.1%/game | Tanuki 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Blacktips over Ankle Biters | 58.9%/game | Blacktips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Flailers over Corals | 52.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Warthogs over Scribes | 54.4%/game | Scribes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Spearmint over Aasimar | 50.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Decuriones over Gold Hoarders | 50.0%/game | Gold Hoarders 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Stingrays | 54.6%/game | Stingrays 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Shade over Reef Gremlins | 52.3%/game | Shade 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | All On Black over Meat Lovers | 54.8%/game | All On Black 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Metal over Scarabs | 54.4%/game | Metal 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Boost Steal | 59.1%/game | Warbirds 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Panda Bears over Dustwalkers | 52.3%/game | Dustwalkers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Hydras over Chromatic Chaos | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Lions over Toucans | 56.4%/game | Toucans 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Ryujin | 52.5%/game | Blitzars 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chew Toys over Threshers | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Quads over Gaboons | 54.0%/game | Quads 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Lightning over Guards | 52.1%/game | Guards 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Polar Ice over Genasi | 52.1%/game | Polar Ice 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Centuriones | 56.2%/game | Mining Legion 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Barracudas over Tax Evaders | 56.7%/game | Barracudas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Nightfall over Whisker Goblins | 54.4%/game | Whisker Goblins 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Dice | 58.3%/game | Hot Wings 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Centipedes over Wind | 50.0%/game | Wind 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Demo Chasers over Jets | 54.4%/game | Jets 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Howlers over Polar Bears | 52.1%/game | Howlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Dracos over Hue Heroes | 51.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Hippos over Ocelots | 56.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Quasars over Kitsune | 50.8%/game | Kitsune 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Prowlers over Hammerheads | 56.9%/game | Prowlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Fer-de-Lance | 55.0%/game | Pushwalkers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Mages over Nighthawks | 54.2%/game | Nighthawks 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Peppermint over Dragonborn | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Drunken Dwarfs | 52.1%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Giant Squids over Pump and Dump | 52.1%/game | Pump and Dump 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Dread | 54.4%/game | Tummy Tables 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Blackjack | 61.1%/game | Cannoli 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Luna Moths over Water | 50.6%/game | Luna Moths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Double Commit | 56.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Sons of Ares over Grizzly Bears | 54.2%/game | Grizzly Bears 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Werewolves over Mosaic Maestros | 56.7%/game | Mosaic Maestros 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Giraffes | 53.1%/game | Gorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Supernova over Kirin | 51.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Makos | 54.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Forest Cobra | 60.1%/game | Wheelchairs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Raptors over Commanders | 55.6%/game | Commanders 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Goliaths over Menthol | 56.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Legati | 57.1%/game | Forge Defenders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Krakens over Embezzlers | 57.1%/game | Embezzlers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Despair over Tiny Terrors | 50.4%/game | Tiny Terrors 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Gelato over Kings | 56.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Black Widows over Fire | 56.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Afterburners | 53.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Peerless Scarred | 54.2%/game | Peerless Scarred 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Basilisks over Pixel Picassos | 54.6%/game | Basilisks 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Sloths | 52.3%/game | Leopards 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Orochi | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Hellhounds over Great Whites | 52.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Aces over Glacier Mint | 51.9%/game | Glacier Mint 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Nightmare over Battle Masters | 54.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Imperatores over Blackbirds | 52.5%/game | Imperatores 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Diplomats over Eastern Brown | 56.2%/game | Eastern Brown 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Helicoprions over Care Bears | 54.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Lemurs over Reapers | 56.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Olympic Knights over Nue | 54.6%/game | Olympic Knights 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Andromeda over Air Buds | 50.6%/game | Andromeda 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Lords over Double Mint | 56.5%/game | Lords 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Long Beards over Capybaras | 51.7%/game | Long Beards 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Valkyries over Jokers | 51.7%/game | Jokers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Leviathans | 58.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Super Clusters over Cerberus | 57.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.