Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 43–22 on series winners that day (66.2%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over Gnomes | 60.8%/game | Garlic Knots 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | HR Violation over Electric Eels | 58.2%/game | HR Violation 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Dik-diks over Stream Rascals | 58.4%/game | Dik-diks 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Surprise over Ball Chasers | 51.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | Stick Bugs over Bombers | 53.8%/game | Bombers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Rollers over Hognose | 54.2%/game | Rollers 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Mustangs over Eladrin | 50.6%/game | Eladrin 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Abyss | 55.4%/game | Fingus No Legs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Ponzi Schemers over Jellyfish | 55.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Cheese Pizza over Legionarii | 54.4%/game | Legionarii 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Jesters over Squeaky Bandits | 54.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Aeronauts over Ice | 56.7%/game | Ice 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Caterpillars | 58.3%/game | Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Zorillas over Helldivers | 55.0%/game | Zorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Nebulae over Gallery Guild | 57.7%/game | Gallery Guild 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Sirens over Whiff Shots | 59.0%/game | Whiff Shots 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Kappa | 62.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Card Dealers over Tic Tacs | 53.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Tomcats | 56.3%/game | Aetherborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Spastics over Gloom | 59.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Diamondback | 52.1%/game | Hostile Takeover 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Blacksmiths over Piranhas | 55.1%/game | Blacksmiths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Principales over River Wolves | 61.1%/game | River Wolves 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Merchants over Hawaiian Pizza | 59.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Blacktips over Koala Bears | 56.3%/game | Blacktips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Turbulence over Red Legion | 57.2%/game | Red Legion 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Earth over Dark Matter | 50.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Roly Polies | 52.4%/game | Honey Badgers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Prism Proteges over Okapis | 55.0%/game | Prism Proteges 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Fairies | 58.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Ankle Biters | 59.7%/game | Back Flips 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | All On Black over Spearmint | 54.0%/game | Spearmint 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Aasimar over Warthogs | 50.6%/game | Aasimar 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Flailers over Shade | 50.0%/game | Flailers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Corals over Insider Traders | 50.8%/game | Insider Traders 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Stingrays | 54.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Reef Gremlins over Decuriones | 50.2%/game | Reef Gremlins 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Scribes over Meat Lovers | 54.8%/game | Meat Lovers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Threshers over Panda Bears | 54.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Dustwalkers | 64.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Metal | 54.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Lions over Scarabs | 55.5%/game | Scarabs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Chromatic Chaos over Toucans | 51.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Hydras over Ryujin | 62.7%/game | Hydras 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chew Toys over Boost Steal | 55.6%/game | Chew Toys 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Polar Ice over Dice | 58.2%/game | Polar Ice 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Lightning over Genasi | 53.6%/game | Genasi 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Quads over Nightfall | 57.1%/game | Nightfall 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Tax Evaders over Gaboons | 51.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Barracudas | 52.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Centuriones over Whisker Goblins | 52.7%/game | Whisker Goblins 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Guards | 57.6%/game | Hot Wings 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Polar Bears over Hammerheads | 52.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Jets over Howlers | 50.8%/game | Howlers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Wind over Quasars | 60.8%/game | Wind 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hippos over Centipedes | 56.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Hue Heroes over Ocelots | 58.6%/game | Hue Heroes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Dracos over Kitsune | 58.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Prowlers over Demo Chasers | 56.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Peppermint over Blackjack | 57.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Nighthawks over Dragonborn | 54.8%/game | Dragonborn 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Dread | 56.2%/game | Pushwalkers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pump and Dump over Fer-de-Lance | 58.8%/game | Pump and Dump 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Giant Squids | 59.7%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Praetoriani | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Mages | 54.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Grizzly Bears over Makos | 54.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Sons of Ares | 54.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Supernova over Water | 56.7%/game | Supernova 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Giraffes over Luna Moths | 53.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Mosaic Maestros | 64.6%/game | Gorillas 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Kirin over Werewolves | 53.5%/game | Kirin 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Double Commit | 55.2%/game | Middy Meowers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Kings over Menthol | 55.8%/game | Kings 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Raptors over Goliaths | 53.6%/game | Goliaths 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Despair | 57.4%/game | Wheelchairs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Embezzlers over Forest Cobra | 51.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Krakens | 65.2%/game | Forge Defenders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Tiny Terrors over Legati | 56.7%/game | Tiny Terrors 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Gelato over Commanders | 52.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Great Whites | 55.8%/game | Teddy Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Peerless Scarred over Afterburners | 51.9%/game | Peerless Scarred 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Fire | 60.0%/game | Black-Holes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Black Widows | 55.1%/game | Leopards 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Sloths over Pixel Picassos | 54.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Orochi over Basilisks | 50.6%/game | Basilisks 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Hellhounds | 55.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Glacier Mint over Diplomats | 55.8%/game | Glacier Mint 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Aces over Blackbirds | 51.5%/game | Blackbirds 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Nightmare over Eastern Brown | 55.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Imperatores over Battle Masters | 56.3%/game | Battle Masters 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Air Buds over Care Bears | 56.5%/game | Air Buds 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Olympic Knights over Helicoprions | 52.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Andromeda over Lemurs | 62.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Nue over Reapers | 54.0%/game | Nue 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Jokers over Double Mint | 62.9%/game | Double Mint 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Long Beards over Valkyries | 58.9%/game | Long Beards 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Lords over Leviathans | 58.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Cerberus | 57.3%/game | Gummy Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Super Clusters over Capybaras | 53.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.