Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 49–21 on series winners that day (70.0%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | HR Violation over Gnomes | 59.6%/game | HR Violation 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Electric Eels over Stream Rascals | 54.6%/game | Electric Eels 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over Ball Chasers | 63.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | Bombers over Surprise | 57.6%/game | Surprise 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Stick Bugs over Dik-diks | 51.9%/game | Dik-diks 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Eladrin over Rollers | 52.0%/game | Rollers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Mustangs over Hognose | 60.3%/game | Mustangs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Jellyfish over Abyss | 56.6%/game | Jellyfish 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Ponzi Schemers | 52.5%/game | Fingus No Legs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Legionarii over Jesters | 59.1%/game | Legionarii 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Cheese Pizza over Squeaky Bandits | 57.0%/game | Cheese Pizza 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Caterpillars over Ice | 50.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Aeronauts | 61.3%/game | Kodiak Bears 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Gallery Guild over Helldivers | 52.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Zorillas over Nebulae | 59.2%/game | Zorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Sirens | 50.8%/game | Wobbegongs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Whiff Shots over Kappa | 56.4%/game | Kappa 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Spastics | 52.0%/game | Aetherborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Hawaiian Pizza over Tic Tacs | 52.0%/game | Tic Tacs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Diamondback over Gloom | 50.1%/game | Diamondback 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Tomcats | 61.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | River Wolves over Piranhas | 58.1%/game | Piranhas 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Principales over Card Dealers | 59.3%/game | Principales 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Merchants over Blacksmiths | 51.2%/game | Merchants 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Red Legion over Earth | 54.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Koala Bears over Ankle Biters | 57.6%/game | Koala Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over Dark Matter | 51.3%/game | Roly Polies 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Turbulence | 56.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Okapis | 65.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Blacktips over Fairies | 55.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Prism Proteges | 55.2%/game | Back Flips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Aasimar over Flailers | 50.2%/game | Aasimar 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Spearmint over Meat Lovers | 54.5%/game | Meat Lovers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Shade over Corals | 54.1%/game | Corals 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Warthogs | 59.3%/game | Insider Traders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Stingrays over Reef Gremlins | 52.9%/game | Reef Gremlins 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | All On Black over Decuriones | 58.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Scribes | 56.5%/game | Gold Hoarders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Metal over Dustwalkers | 50.8%/game | Metal 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chew Toys over Panda Bears | 57.6%/game | Chew Toys 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Scarabs | 59.6%/game | Blitzars 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Lions | 66.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Toucans over Ryujin | 61.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Hydras over Threshers | 60.2%/game | Hydras 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chromatic Chaos over Boost Steal | 58.1%/game | Chromatic Chaos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Quads over Genasi | 50.3%/game | Genasi 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Polar Ice | 55.5%/game | Polar Ice 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Nightfall over Gaboons | 53.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Lightning over Tax Evaders | 51.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Barracudas over Whisker Goblins | 57.9%/game | Barracudas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Centuriones over Dice | 55.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Guards | 57.1%/game | Mining Legion 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Howlers over Wind | 52.8%/game | Howlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Prowlers over Polar Bears | 57.7%/game | Prowlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Centipedes over Quasars | 60.4%/game | Centipedes 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Jets over Hippos | 51.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Kitsune over Ocelots | 53.8%/game | Ocelots 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Dracos over Hammerheads | 59.1%/game | Dracos 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hue Heroes over Demo Chasers | 56.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Dragonborn | 53.3%/game | Pushwalkers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Peppermint | 56.4%/game | Cannoli 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Dread over Fer-de-Lance | 54.5%/game | Fer-de-Lance 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Pump and Dump over Nighthawks | 56.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Giant Squids | 60.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Blackjack | 59.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Mages | 54.3%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Sons of Ares over Water | 58.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Grizzly Bears | 51.0%/game | Middy Meowers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Supernova over Luna Moths | 52.9%/game | Supernova 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Giraffes | 51.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Kirin | 61.7%/game | Gorillas 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Makos over Werewolves | 57.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Double Commit over Mosaic Maestros | 55.8%/game | Mosaic Maestros 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Goliaths | 52.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Gelato over Menthol | 62.3%/game | Gelato 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Despair over Forest Cobra | 53.8%/game | Despair 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Raptors over Embezzlers | 54.7%/game | Embezzlers 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Tiny Terrors over Krakens | 62.0%/game | Krakens 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Kings over Legati | 58.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Commanders | 60.3%/game | Forge Defenders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Peerless Scarred over Fire | 63.8%/game | Peerless Scarred 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Hellhounds | 55.0%/game | Teddy Bears 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Black Widows | 60.5%/game | Black-Holes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Afterburners | 62.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Orochi over Sloths | 50.3%/game | Sloths 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Basilisks over Great Whites | 62.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Pixel Picassos | 59.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Glacier Mint over Reapers | 66.4%/game | Reapers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Helicoprions over Nightmare | 50.3%/game | Helicoprions 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Olympic Knights over Battle Masters | 52.4%/game | Battle Masters 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Care Bears over Diplomats | 53.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Nue over Aces | 52.7%/game | Aces 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Andromeda over Eastern Brown | 61.2%/game | Andromeda 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Imperatores over Lemurs | 53.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Air Buds over Blackbirds | 53.1%/game | Air Buds 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Valkyries over Double Mint | 52.6%/game | Valkyries 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Long Beards over Lords | 58.9%/game | Lords 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Jokers over Cerberus | 55.2%/game | Jokers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Super Clusters | 53.3%/game | Gummy Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Capybaras over Leviathans | 51.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.