Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 34–31 on series winners that day (52.3%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | HR Violation over Surprise | 59.3%/game | HR Violation 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Bombers over Stream Rascals | 63.5%/game | Stream Rascals 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over Stick Bugs | 57.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | Dik-diks over Gnomes | 61.3%/game | Gnomes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Ball Chasers over Electric Eels | 50.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Mustangs over Cheese Pizza | 55.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Eladrin over Jellyfish | 51.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Ponzi Schemers over Hognose | 64.1%/game | Ponzi Schemers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Legionarii | 53.0%/game | Fingus No Legs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Abyss over Squeaky Bandits | 51.4%/game | Abyss 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Rollers over Jesters | 62.5%/game | Rollers 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Whiff Shots | 61.9%/game | Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Gallery Guild over Caterpillars | 53.7%/game | Caterpillars 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Nebulae over Aeronauts | 53.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Zorillas over Sirens | 55.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Kappa over Helldivers | 50.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Ice | 62.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Diamondback over Piranhas | 53.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Hawaiian Pizza over Gloom | 52.6%/game | Hawaiian Pizza 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Merchants over Hostile Takeover | 52.7%/game | Hostile Takeover 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Blacksmiths over Tomcats | 51.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Principales over Tic Tacs | 61.4%/game | Tic Tacs 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Spastics over River Wolves | 52.1%/game | River Wolves 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Card Dealers | 61.3%/game | Aetherborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over Okapis | 58.4%/game | Roly Polies 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Dark Matter over Ankle Biters | 59.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Honey Badgers | 52.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Turbulence over Prism Proteges | 51.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Fairies over Koala Bears | 53.3%/game | Fairies 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Earth | 57.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Blacktips over Red Legion | 52.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Corals over Stingrays | 52.5%/game | Corals 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Meat Lovers over Shade | 56.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Scribes | 64.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Warthogs | 66.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Spearmint over Decuriones | 56.2%/game | Spearmint 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Flailers over Reef Gremlins | 51.7%/game | Reef Gremlins 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Aasimar over All On Black | 56.1%/game | All On Black 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Toucans over Scarabs | 57.1%/game | Toucans 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Chew Toys | 50.5%/game | Chew Toys 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Lions over Boost Steal | 53.1%/game | Boost Steal 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Chromatic Chaos | 56.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Hydras over Panda Bears | 66.3%/game | Hydras 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Metal over Ryujin | 63.5%/game | Metal 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Threshers over Dustwalkers | 53.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Barracudas over Gaboons | 63.0%/game | Gaboons 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Nightfall | 61.3%/game | Nightfall 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Guards over Tax Evaders | 53.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Lightning | 62.5%/game | Lightning 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Polar Ice over Centuriones | 63.3%/game | Centuriones 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Whisker Goblins over Quads | 50.1%/game | Quads 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Genasi over Dice | 60.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Centipedes over Ocelots | 52.4%/game | Ocelots 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Prowlers over Quasars | 73.2%/game | Prowlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hippos over Demo Chasers | 50.7%/game | Demo Chasers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hue Heroes over Jets | 53.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Dracos over Polar Bears | 62.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Wind over Kitsune | 55.9%/game | Kitsune 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Howlers over Hammerheads | 65.8%/game | Howlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Giant Squids over Fer-de-Lance | 52.0%/game | Giant Squids 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Dread | 67.2%/game | Cannoli 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pump and Dump over Mages | 57.9%/game | Mages 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Nighthawks | 59.8%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Peppermint | 56.2%/game | Praetoriani 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Tummy Tables | 52.9%/game | Tummy Tables 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Dragonborn over Blackjack | 55.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Luna Moths | 70.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Supernova | 52.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Giraffes over Double Commit | 57.9%/game | Giraffes 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Mosaic Maestros | 59.6%/game | Mosaic Maestros 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Grizzly Bears over Werewolves | 58.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Kirin over Water | 54.9%/game | Kirin 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Makos over Sons of Ares | 51.1%/game | Makos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Krakens over Forest Cobra | 56.7%/game | Forest Cobra 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Gelato over Despair | 60.2%/game | Gelato 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Commanders over Embezzlers | 51.1%/game | Commanders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Raptors | 72.5%/game | Forge Defenders 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Legati over Menthol | 55.4%/game | Menthol 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Tiny Terrors | 58.5%/game | Wheelchairs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Goliaths over Kings | 53.4%/game | Goliaths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Sloths over Black Widows | 58.3%/game | Sloths 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Hellhounds | 62.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Leopards over Frame Skips | 55.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Afterburners over Pixel Picassos | 52.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Basilisks | 52.0%/game | Basilisks 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Orochi over Fire | 53.6%/game | Orochi 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Peerless Scarred over Great Whites | 65.0%/game | Great Whites 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Helicoprions over Blackbirds | 55.4%/game | Helicoprions 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Air Buds over Battle Masters | 54.1%/game | Battle Masters 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Nightmare over Care Bears | 51.1%/game | Care Bears 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Olympic Knights over Diplomats | 58.0%/game | Diplomats 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Andromeda over Glacier Mint | 58.8%/game | Glacier Mint 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Lemurs over Aces | 51.1%/game | Aces 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Master | Imperatores over Reapers | 58.0%/game | Imperatores 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Nue over Eastern Brown | 51.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Valkyries | 56.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Lords over Super Clusters | 57.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Jokers over Capybaras | 53.0%/game | Capybaras 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Premier | Leviathans over Double Mint | 58.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Long Beards over Cerberus | 66.3%/game | Long Beards 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.