Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 44–25 on series winners that day (63.8%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Surprise over Electric Eels | 52.3%/game | Surprise 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Bombers over Gnomes | 50.2%/game | Bombers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Stick Bugs over Stream Rascals | 57.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Amateur | Garlic Knots over Dik-diks | 57.2%/game | Dik-diks 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | HR Violation over Ball Chasers | 63.6%/game | HR Violation 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Rollers over Ponzi Schemers | 56.7%/game | Rollers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Cheese Pizza over Hognose | 63.8%/game | Hognose 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Eladrin over Abyss | 59.5%/game | Eladrin 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Jellyfish over Legionarii | 50.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Squeaky Bandits | 73.3%/game | Fingus No Legs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Mustangs over Jesters | 64.3%/game | Mustangs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Ice over Nebulae | 51.1%/game | Nebulae 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Whiff Shots over Aeronauts | 55.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Caterpillars over Helldivers | 50.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Sirens over Gallery Guild | 55.9%/game | Sirens 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Zorillas over Kappa | 58.9%/game | Zorillas 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Wobbegongs | 55.7%/game | Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Spastics over Piranhas | 51.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Tic Tacs over Blacksmiths | 51.9%/game | Blacksmiths 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Diamondback | 58.5%/game | Aetherborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Gloom | 68.3%/game | Hostile Takeover 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tomcats over Hawaiian Pizza | 50.9%/game | Tomcats 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Merchants over Principales | 51.0%/game | Merchants 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | River Wolves over Card Dealers | 56.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Earth over Okapis | 57.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Prism Proteges over Koala Bears | 53.1%/game | Koala Bears 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over Red Legion | 50.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Dark Matter | 60.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Turbulence over Ankle Biters | 62.2%/game | Ankle Biters 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Fairies | 54.4%/game | Back Flips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Blacktips | 50.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Flailers over Stingrays | 51.2%/game | Stingrays 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Spearmint | 54.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Corals over Aasimar | 51.1%/game | Aasimar 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Shade | 61.1%/game | Insider Traders 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Meat Lovers over Warthogs | 57.8%/game | Meat Lovers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Scribes over Decuriones | 52.8%/game | Decuriones 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | All On Black over Reef Gremlins | 50.7%/game | All On Black 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Metal over Toucans | 54.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Chromatic Chaos over Panda Bears | 63.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Dustwalkers over Scarabs | 53.8%/game | Dustwalkers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Lions | 59.9%/game | Blitzars 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chew Toys over Warbirds | 50.3%/game | Warbirds 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Hydras over Boost Steal | 66.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Threshers over Ryujin | 57.8%/game | Ryujin 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Barracudas over Quads | 50.8%/game | Quads 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Polar Ice | 50.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Gaboons over Genasi | 50.3%/game | Gaboons 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Nightfall over Tax Evaders | 54.5%/game | Tax Evaders 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Lightning | 55.2%/game | Hot Wings 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Guards over Centuriones | 50.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Whisker Goblins over Dice | 50.5%/game | Whisker Goblins 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Ocelots over Wind | 53.3%/game | Ocelots 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hue Heroes over Polar Bears | 58.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Howlers over Centipedes | 62.0%/game | Howlers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hippos over Quasars | 66.5%/game | Hippos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Prowlers over Jets | 54.4%/game | Jets 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Dracos over Demo Chasers | 54.8%/game | Dracos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Kitsune over Hammerheads | 59.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Giant Squids | 56.7%/game | Giant Squids 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Peppermint | 67.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Dragonborn over Fer-de-Lance | 57.8%/game | Dragonborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Pump and Dump over Dread | 61.6%/game | Dread 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Nighthawks | 60.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Praetoriani over Mages | 52.3%/game | Praetoriani 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Blackjack | 61.4%/game | Tummy Tables 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Water | 72.2%/game | Gorillas 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Grizzly Bears over Mosaic Maestros | 54.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Sons of Ares over Luna Moths | 50.7%/game | Sons of Ares 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Supernova over Giraffes | 52.5%/game | Supernova 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Dogfight | 57.4%/game | Dogfight 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Werewolves over Double Commit | 52.2%/game | Double Commit 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Makos over Kirin | 53.4%/game | Makos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Krakens | 65.7%/game | Krakens 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Forge Defenders over Menthol | 73.6%/game | Forge Defenders 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Goliaths over Forest Cobra | 62.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Despair over Embezzlers | 52.9%/game | Despair 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Gelato over Raptors | 66.4%/game | Gelato 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Commanders over Legati | 62.2%/game | Legati 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Kings over Tiny Terrors | 54.9%/game | Tiny Terrors 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Sloths over Fire | 67.6%/game | Fire 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Teddy Bears over Pixel Picassos | 59.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Peerless Scarred over Black Widows | 66.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Leopards over Black-Holes | 51.0%/game | Black-Holes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Afterburners over Hellhounds | 51.9%/game | Hellhounds 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Basilisks over Frame Skips | 55.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Great Whites over Orochi | 53.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Blackbirds over Nue | 54.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Battle Masters over Lemurs | 62.5%/game | Battle Masters 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Andromeda over Imperatores | 53.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Air Buds over Diplomats | 56.8%/game | Air Buds 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Glacier Mint over Care Bears | 55.6%/game | Glacier Mint 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Aces over Olympic Knights | 56.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Nightmare over Reapers | 52.5%/game | Reapers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Helicoprions over Eastern Brown | 64.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Long Beards over Gummy Bears | 53.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Super Clusters over Double Mint | 60.4%/game | Super Clusters 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Lords over Capybaras | 55.1%/game | Lords 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Jokers over Leviathans | 52.5%/game | Jokers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Valkyries over Cerberus | 59.1%/game | Valkyries 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.