Every pick graded the honest way: for each played series the model is re-run using only the games that happened before that match day, names a favorite, then is scored against the real result. No hindsight, nothing stored after the fact.
Went 52–22 on series winners that day (70.3%).
| Tier | Model's pick | Edge | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amateur | Gnomes over Electric Eels | 52.7%/game | Electric Eels 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | HR Violation over Garlic Knots | 56.6%/game | HR Violation 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Amateur | Surprise over Bombers | 53.5%/game | Bombers 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Dik-diks over Stick Bugs | 50.4%/game | Stick Bugs 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Amateur | Stream Rascals over Ball Chasers | 51.7%/game | Stream Rascals 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Eladrin over Cheese Pizza | 59.5%/game | Eladrin 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Fingus No Legs over Hognose | 66.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Rollers over Jellyfish | 60.8%/game | Rollers 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Mustangs over Legionarii | 59.1%/game | Mustangs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Ponzi Schemers over Squeaky Bandits | 64.6%/game | Ponzi Schemers 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Abyss over Jesters | 56.5%/game | Jesters 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Whiff Shots over Caterpillars | 50.6%/game | Caterpillars 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Zorillas over Aeronauts | 67.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Contender | Gallery Guild over Ice | 60.0%/game | Gallery Guild 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Kodiak Bears over Sirens | 59.5%/game | Kodiak Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Contender | Nebulae over Kappa | 53.9%/game | Kappa 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Contender | Wobbegongs over Helldivers | 54.2%/game | Wobbegongs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Spastics over Prism Proteges | 58.5%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Tic Tacs over Okapis | 55.3%/game | Tic Tacs 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Aetherborn over Ankle Biters | 63.6%/game | Aetherborn 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Hostile Takeover over Blacktips | 54.1%/game | Hostile Takeover 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Red Legion over Hawaiian Pizza | 61.9%/game | Red Legion 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Merchants over Dark Matter | 60.6%/game | Dark Matter 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Prospect | Honey Badgers over Card Dealers | 61.2%/game | Honey Badgers 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Koala Bears over Piranhas | 50.7%/game | Koala Bears 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Blacksmiths over Earth | 58.0%/game | Blacksmiths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tanuki over Diamondback | 58.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Prospect | Back Flips over Gloom | 72.6%/game | Back Flips 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Tomcats over Fairies | 52.0%/game | Tomcats 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Principales over Turbulence | 62.2%/game | Principales 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Prospect | Roly Polies over River Wolves | 53.6%/game | Roly Polies 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Chromatic Chaos over Flailers | 53.0%/game | Chromatic Chaos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Toucans over Spearmint | 50.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | Aasimar over Chew Toys | 51.2%/game | Chew Toys 4.0-0.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Insider Traders over Threshers | 60.3%/game | Threshers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Meat Lovers over Dustwalkers | 59.3%/game | Meat Lovers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Blitzars over Scribes | 54.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Challenger | All On Black over Lions | 65.3%/game | Lions 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Stingrays over Panda Bears | 55.7%/game | Stingrays 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Gold Hoarders over Metal | 56.1%/game | Metal 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Challenger | Corals over Ryujin | 51.0%/game | Corals 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Shade over Boost Steal | 51.0%/game | Shade 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Hydras over Warthogs | 73.3%/game | Hydras 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Warbirds over Decuriones | 69.4%/game | Warbirds 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Challenger | Reef Gremlins over Scarabs | 57.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Quads over Hue Heroes | 52.5%/game | Hue Heroes 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Ocelots over Polar Ice | 51.5%/game | Polar Ice 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Genasi over Prowlers | 50.9%/game | Genasi 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Tax Evaders over Hammerheads | 59.2%/game | Hammerheads 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Hot Wings over Howlers | 52.0%/game | Hot Wings 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Guards over Quasars | 68.0%/game | Guards 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Hippos over Dice | 57.6%/game | Hippos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Polar Bears over Barracudas | 53.4%/game | Polar Bears 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Mining Legion over Wind | 64.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Rival | Kitsune over Gaboons | 54.5%/game | Kitsune 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Demo Chasers over Nightfall | 52.1%/game | Demo Chasers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Rival | Dracos over Lightning | 52.4%/game | Lightning 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Jets over Centuriones | 50.1%/game | Centuriones 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Rival | Centipedes over Whisker Goblins | 58.6%/game | Whisker Goblins 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Pushwalkers over Mosaic Maestros | 55.6%/game | Pushwalkers 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Gorillas over Peppermint | 72.6%/game | Peppermint 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Middy Meowers over Dragonborn | 50.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Makos over Pump and Dump | 58.2%/game | Makos 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Cannoli over Sons of Ares | 64.0%/game | Cannoli 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Supernova over Mages | 58.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Giraffes over Blackjack | 61.7%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Grizzly Bears over Giant Squids | 56.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Drunken Dwarfs over Water | 71.3%/game | Drunken Dwarfs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Veteran | Kirin over Fer-de-Lance | 58.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Dread over Double Commit | 50.3%/game | Double Commit 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Veteran | Nighthawks over Werewolves | 54.9%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Dogfight over Praetoriani | 51.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Veteran | Tummy Tables over Luna Moths | 62.4%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Wheelchairs over Pixel Picassos | 53.2%/game | Wheelchairs 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Sloths over Menthol | 58.6%/game | Sloths 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Goliaths over Hellhounds | 63.2%/game | Goliaths 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Great Whites over Embezzlers | 65.7%/game | Great Whites 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Gelato over Peerless Scarred | 61.1%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Black-Holes over Commanders | 56.6%/game | Black-Holes 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Leopards over Kings | 65.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Krakens over Teddy Bears | 50.3%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Elite | Orochi over Forest Cobra | 58.0%/game | Forest Cobra 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Elite | Frame Skips over Despair | 51.0%/game | Frame Skips 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Basilisks over Raptors | 63.5%/game | Basilisks 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Legati over Afterburners | 51.9%/game | Legati 4.0-0.0 | ✓ hit |
| Elite | Black Widows over Tiny Terrors | 51.6%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Blackbirds over Eastern Brown | 56.1%/game | Eastern Brown 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Battle Masters over Glacier Mint | 52.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Imperatores over Nightmare | 59.8%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Aces over Diplomats | 55.3%/game | Aces 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Andromeda over Olympic Knights | 60.0%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Master | Care Bears over Reapers | 53.0%/game | Reapers 3.0-1.0 | × miss |
| Master | Nue over Lemurs | 52.3%/game | Nue 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Master | Helicoprions over Air Buds | 53.7%/game | Helicoprions 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Long Beards over Double Mint | 70.9%/game | Long Beards 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Valkyries over Jokers | 53.5%/game | Valkyries 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Gummy Bears over Super Clusters | 55.2%/game | 2.0-2.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Premier | Capybaras over Leviathans | 51.5%/game | Capybaras 3.0-1.0 | ✓ hit |
| Premier | Lords over Cerberus | 64.9%/game | 1.0-1.0 tie (no winner) | – tie |
| Match Day | Series | That day | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Day 1 | 67 | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Match Day 2 | 68 | 60.3% | 54.8% |
| Match Day 3 | 75 | 56.0% | 55.2% |
| Match Day 4 | 65 | 66.2% | 57.8% |
| Match Day 5 | 70 | 70.0% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 6 | 65 | 52.3% | 59.0% |
| Match Day 7 | 69 | 63.8% | 59.7% |
| Match Day 8 | 65 | 64.6% | 60.3% |
| Match Day 9 | 74 | 70.3% | 61.5% |
Per-game outcomes in this league are near coin-flips, so the model's value is calibration (Brier), not big hit-rate swings. See Model Accuracy for the full calibration breakdown.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.