FerrisCrueller

Prospect - Hostile Takeover - 15-8 (0.652)
27 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 23 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 27/100 Tier dominance: 74th (+0.6 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Striker / Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
17% of games
Shot %
38%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 352.17 8100
64th
Goals 1.0 23
83rd
Assists 0.65 15
74th
Saves 0.87 20
14th
Shots 2.61 60
62nd
Demos 0.96 22
57th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points352.17 #407 / 1215 #48 / 161
Goals1.0 #132 / 1215 #19 / 161
Assists0.65 #269 / 1215 #35 / 161
Saves0.87 #852 / 1215 #114 / 161
Demos0.96 #462 / 1215 #57 / 161

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (23 → ~38 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (170 games across 4 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 8100 13383 13299 13299 13187 – 13412
Goals 23 38 37 37 31 – 43
Assists 15 25 24 24 20 – 29
Saves 20 33 34 33 28 – 40
Shots 60 99 98 98 89 – 108
Demos 22 36 36 35 30 – 42
MVPs 4 7 7 7 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 57 /100

From 19 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 367.1
Avg boost 49.5
Boost stolen / game 411.1
% time at 0 boost 11.6%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1446.4
% supersonic 9.7%
% time high in air 2.4%
Avg distance to ball 3078.2
% time attacking third 19.9%
Demos / game 0.9
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 37.2%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Contender11 0.820.730.55 360
S21Contender48 1.120.50.9 389
S22Prospect2 1.50.50.5 355
S23Prospect60 0.750.450.9 378
S24Challenger51 0.760.721.02 374
S26Prospect19 1.050.630.9 367

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game1.05 0.94 0.9 – 1.02
Assists/game0.63 0.6 0.56 – 0.62
Saves/game0.9 0.95 0.82 – 1.06
Shots/game2.63 2.64 2.5 – 2.81

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
deneyed S17Contender 1.190.621.06 0.93
SNOWIS S23Rival 0.870.641.0 1.01
turboalpaca S20Challenger 1.060.610.78 1.04
Larkspur S26Prospect 0.940.521.0 1.04
Light S23Rival 0.980.560.81 1.06
StruttRL S22Challenger 1.050.61.05 1.07
Unc Jeebs S26Challenger 0.940.611.03 1.09
Wrychew S18Contender 1.180.550.91 1.11
jizko S25Challenger 0.940.690.96 1.13
LoneDrifter. S26Prospect 0.840.620.88 1.14

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.