Gyarados-_-

Rival - Kitsune - 20-15 (0.571)
56 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 35 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 56/100 Tier dominance: 84th (+1.0 SD) Projects as: Rival Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
10
29% of games
Shot %
35%

Per-game production (percentile within Rival)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 391.23 13693
84th
Goals 0.97 34
81st
Assists 0.49 17
39th
Saves 1.46 51
66th
Shots 2.8 98
71st
Demos 1.06 37
62nd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Rival
Points391.23 #155 / 1215 #21 / 164
Goals0.97 #179 / 1215 #25 / 164
Assists0.49 #580 / 1215 #82 / 164
Saves1.46 #311 / 1215 #45 / 164
Demos1.06 #366 / 1215 #51 / 164

Season projection

Medium confidence

56% of the season is played (35 → ~62 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (40 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 13693 24256 24005 24005 23839 – 24171
Goals 34 60 59 61 51 – 67
Assists 17 30 30 31 24 – 36
Saves 51 90 90 89 80 – 100
Shots 98 174 172 175 158 – 186
Demos 37 66 65 65 57 – 74
MVPs 10 18 17 17 13 – 21

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 81 /100

From 31 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 418.6
Avg boost 51.2
Boost stolen / game 545.8
% time at 0 boost 13.8%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1558.4
% supersonic 15.3%
% time high in air 5.7%
Avg distance to ball 2729.5
% time attacking third 21.2%
Demos / game 1.2
Demos taken / game 1.2
Shooting % 33.4%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S25Rival40 1.150.61.25 388
S26Rival31 0.940.521.45 419

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.94 0.88 0.85 – 0.96
Assists/game0.52 0.57 0.5 – 0.62
Saves/game1.45 1.45 1.37 – 1.49
Shots/game2.71 2.75 2.65 – 2.81

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Cloudburst S23Elite 1.020.621.44 0.68
Aki S23Elite 0.970.581.42 0.75
luckyraizz S25Challenger 0.880.561.38 0.80
Wafe S22Veteran 0.810.531.42 0.81
Frostii S24Challenger 0.960.461.27 0.81
Rzemb1e S25Master 1.020.471.5 0.82
Solar S18Rival 0.880.621.38 0.83
Lucas S25Veteran 0.860.481.58 0.84
S_ckz S26Elite 0.880.51.25 0.87
Skillz Issue S23Challenger 0.80.561.36 0.90

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.