JonathanVanDyk

Prospect - Turbulence - 10-22 (0.312)
16 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 32 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 16/100 Tier dominance: 4th (-1.7 SD) Projects as: Contender ↓ Below tier level Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
2
6% of games
Shot %
24%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 299.0 9568
27th
Goals 0.56 18
23rd
Assists 0.38 12
20th
Saves 1.19 38
50th
Shots 2.31 74
44th
Demos 0.38 12
6th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points299.0 #759 / 1215 #96 / 161
Goals0.56 #744 / 1215 #102 / 161
Assists0.38 #761 / 1215 #103 / 161
Saves1.19 #584 / 1215 #67 / 161
Demos0.38 #887 / 1215 #125 / 161

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (32 → ~53 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (79 games across 3 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 9568 15847 15980 15980 15853 – 16106
Goals 18 30 31 31 25 – 36
Assists 12 20 21 20 16 – 25
Saves 38 63 63 63 55 – 71
Shots 74 123 123 122 112 – 134
Demos 12 20 22 21 17 – 27
MVPs 2 3 4 4 2 – 6

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 14 /100

From 28 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 357.6
Avg boost 48.4
Boost stolen / game 390.9
% time at 0 boost 12.7%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1445.0
% supersonic 9.9%
% time high in air 2.7%
Avg distance to ball 3211.7
% time attacking third 15.7%
Demos / game 0.4
Demos taken / game 0.6
Shooting % 25.4%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S22Amateur50 1.00.41.42 333
S23Challenger7 0.430.140.71 328
S24Challenger16 0.50.311.0 360
S25Challenger13 0.460.310.77 353
S26Prospect28 0.640.391.21 358

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.64 0.7 0.65 – 0.72
Assists/game0.39 0.39 0.38 – 0.5
Saves/game1.21 1.24 1.19 – 1.39
Shots/game2.57 2.4 2.2 – 2.5

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Midnight S25Challenger 0.630.51.23 1.03
Ozzy S20Prospect 0.620.381.24 1.21
SRSExKAOS S25Rival 0.670.271.47 1.24
Cob S17Rival 0.930.291.21 1.26
Eskonor. S25Prospect 0.710.421.1 1.27
llokxz S26Contender 0.560.331.56 1.31
Beans S13Elite 0.70.41.2 1.31
mogulmaniac5480 S25Rival 0.650.291.35 1.33
Ice Phoenix S23Veteran 0.70.571.34 1.34
Bushier Brow S24Veteran 0.630.391.59 1.35

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.