Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).
Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.
Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.
Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.
| Stat | Per game | Total | Percentile in tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 321.57 | 9647 |
|
| Goals | 0.8 | 24 |
|
| Assists | 0.6 | 18 |
|
| Saves | 1.13 | 34 |
|
| Shots | 2.37 | 71 |
|
| Demos | 0.83 | 25 |
|
| Stat | Per game | Overall rank | Rank in Rival |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 321.57 | #640 / 1215 | #95 / 164 |
| Goals | 0.8 | #391 / 1215 | #60 / 164 |
| Assists | 0.6 | #344 / 1215 | #50 / 164 |
| Saves | 1.13 | #647 / 1215 | #105 / 164 |
| Demos | 0.83 | #564 / 1215 | #85 / 164 |
56% of the season is played (30 → ~53 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (82 games across 2 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.
| Stat | Now | Pace | Projected (season) | Projected (all data) | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 9647 | 17043 | 17138 | 17138 | 16998 – 17279 |
| Goals | 24 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 35 – 49 |
| Assists | 18 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 25 – 37 |
| Saves | 34 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 53 – 70 |
| Shots | 71 | 125 | 126 | 126 | 114 – 138 |
| Demos | 25 | 44 | 45 | 43 | 38 – 52 |
| MVPs | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 – 6 |
From 26 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.
| Boost / min | 311.2 |
| Avg boost | 51.4 |
| Boost stolen / game | 507.0 |
| % time at 0 boost | 6.4% |
| Avg speed (uu/s) | 1506.3 |
| % supersonic | 10.4% |
| % time high in air | 4.2% |
| Avg distance to ball | 2617.9 |
| % time attacking third | 23.0% |
| Demos / game | 0.9 |
| Demos taken / game | 1.7 |
| Shooting % | 31.6% |
| Season | Tier | Games | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Boost/min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S24 | Rival | 34 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 294 |
| S25 | Rival | 48 | 0.75 | 0.54 | 1.73 | 304 |
| S26 | Rival | 26 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 1.08 | 311 |
Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.
| Stat | This season | Comparables median | Typical range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals/game | 0.81 | 0.8 | 0.74 – 0.83 |
| Assists/game | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.55 – 0.65 |
| Saves/game | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.0 – 1.22 |
| Shots/game | 2.54 | 2.63 | 2.43 – 2.74 |
Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.
| Player | Season | Tier | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Similarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lad | S24 | Elite | 0.74 | 0.58 | 1.16 | 0.90 |
| CF0UR_ | S25 | Rival | 0.77 | 0.75 | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| paul | S23 | Rival | 0.71 | 0.62 | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| risu | S23 | Challenger | 0.8 | 0.49 | 1.0 | 0.95 |
| Jay | S20 | Premier | 0.8 | 0.55 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Vaz1fy. | S24 | Veteran | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 1.03 |
| JoeExotic | S25 | Rival | 0.68 | 0.55 | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| JoeExotic | S26 | Challenger | 0.9 | 0.62 | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| TSG ICY2587 | S19 | Contender | 1.0 | 0.58 | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| Jack.flv | S19 | Challenger | 0.88 | 0.5 | 0.88 | 1.07 |
Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.