Mysty

Challenger - Warthogs - 8-17 (0.320)
37 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 25 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 37/100 Tier dominance: 49th (-0.2 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
2
8% of games
Shot %
37%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 327.44 8186
39th
Goals 0.88 22
70th
Assists 0.36 9
15th
Saves 1.16 29
31st
Shots 2.4 60
42nd
Demos 0.64 16
30th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points327.44 #601 / 1215 #81 / 166
Goals0.88 #271 / 1215 #40 / 166
Assists0.36 #792 / 1215 #113 / 166
Saves1.16 #621 / 1215 #92 / 166
Demos0.64 #725 / 1215 #93 / 166

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (25 → ~42 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (159 games across 6 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 8186 13752 13810 13810 13691 – 13928
Goals 22 37 36 35 30 – 42
Assists 9 15 16 16 12 – 20
Saves 29 49 49 49 42 – 56
Shots 60 101 101 98 91 – 111
Demos 16 27 28 28 23 – 34
MVPs 2 3 4 4 2 – 6

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 38 /100

From 23 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 398.4
Avg boost 56.0
Boost stolen / game 618.8
% time at 0 boost 7.2%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1528.8
% supersonic 14.7%
% time high in air 2.5%
Avg distance to ball 3205.1
% time attacking third 20.5%
Demos / game 0.7
Demos taken / game 1.9
Shooting % 36.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Rival15 0.60.41.07 401
S21Rival11 0.360.091.46 350
S22Rival16 0.810.621.06 362
S23Rival25 0.560.41.16 402
S24Rival57 0.440.61.26 387
S25Rival35 0.510.40.91 348
S26Challenger23 0.870.391.0 398

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~21 OVR High confidence — inferred from 1066 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 37.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)63992133-2805 43% 297
RSC (official)6421-28 43% 316
Non-RSC ranked 3v31066400-398 50% 258
Non-RSC other52691712-2379 42% 304

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.87 0.81 0.75 – 0.92
Assists/game0.39 0.42 0.33 – 0.44
Saves/game1.0 1.04 0.98 – 1.12
Shots/game2.39 2.42 2.23 – 2.54

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Pullis. S21Veteran 0.960.361.14 0.84
Kflip11 S23Challenger 0.760.410.98 0.86
Synnicall S26Rival 0.910.350.91 0.89
Cr1m5on_RL S23Challenger 0.830.341.0 1.00
Bricked Up Barry S22Rival 0.720.331.06 1.04
V S14Elite 0.750.51.12 1.07
Cobraz RE S14Veteran 0.750.421.08 1.08
Robbie S22Rival 1.00.380.75 1.11
Tropicalshortsba S24Veteran 0.860.551.12 1.13
Slayerof666 S25Rival 0.760.291.24 1.13

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.