OvrSizedFrog

Challenger - All On Black - 14-12 (0.538)
38 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 26 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 38/100 Tier dominance: 53rd (-0.1 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
15% of games
Shot %
38%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 325.62 8466
38th
Goals 0.81 21
60th
Assists 0.5 13
41st
Saves 1.23 32
44th
Shots 2.15 56
20th
Demos 0.54 14
19th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points325.62 #616 / 1215 #82 / 166
Goals0.81 #381 / 1215 #53 / 166
Assists0.5 #516 / 1215 #71 / 166
Saves1.23 #548 / 1215 #75 / 166
Demos0.54 #785 / 1215 #107 / 166

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (26 → ~43 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (174 games across 6 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 8466 14001 14064 14064 13947 – 14182
Goals 21 35 35 36 29 – 40
Assists 13 22 22 22 17 – 26
Saves 32 53 53 52 46 – 60
Shots 56 93 94 97 84 – 104
Demos 14 23 25 23 20 – 30
MVPs 4 7 7 7 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 49 /100

From 22 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 334.6
Avg boost 51.0
Boost stolen / game 463.9
% time at 0 boost 11.7%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1475.7
% supersonic 11.2%
% time high in air 3.7%
Avg distance to ball 2926.4
% time attacking third 22.2%
Demos / game 0.5
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 39.4%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Prospect18 1.170.50.94 282
S21Prospect8 2.121.251.75 293
S22Challenger15 0.930.331.0 277
S23Challenger36 0.580.721.03 304
S24Challenger45 0.730.531.13 322
S25Prospect52 1.170.711.15 357
S26Challenger22 0.770.551.32 335

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.77 0.75 0.69 – 0.83
Assists/game0.55 0.52 0.48 – 0.56
Saves/game1.32 1.27 1.17 – 1.4
Shots/game2.14 2.27 2.19 – 2.37

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
QX5Z S19Rival 0.810.561.12 0.84
Nebulade S25Veteran 0.650.491.32 0.85
Makaveli S26Veteran 0.650.581.35 0.92
JazzMagic. S26Rival 0.830.621.33 0.94
JazzMagic. S24Rival 0.810.581.39 1.02
SWZYY GN S23Challenger 0.840.421.22 1.03
JoeExotic S25Rival 0.680.551.12 1.04
Timbo S20Master 0.820.361.27 1.07
steel.reserve S22Veteran 0.860.591.37 1.08
CaptnFlufflepuff S20Prospect 0.70.541.07 1.09

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.