Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).
Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.
Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.
Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.
| Stat | Per game | Total | Percentile in tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 398.8 | 7976 |
|
| Goals | 1.15 | 23 |
|
| Assists | 0.25 | 5 |
|
| Saves | 1.5 | 30 |
|
| Shots | 3.55 | 71 |
|
| Demos | 3.65 | 73 |
|
| Stat | Per game | Overall rank | Rank in Rival |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 398.8 | #127 / 1215 | #17 / 164 |
| Goals | 1.15 | #61 / 1215 | #7 / 164 |
| Assists | 0.25 | #878 / 1215 | #121 / 164 |
| Saves | 1.5 | #240 / 1215 | #32 / 164 |
| Demos | 3.65 | #4 / 1215 | #2 / 164 |
56% of the season is played (20 → ~36 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (124 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.
| Stat | Now | Pace | Projected (season) | Projected (all data) | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 7976 | 14357 | 14093 | 14093 | 13968 – 14219 |
| Goals | 23 | 41 | 40 | 38 | 33 – 46 |
| Assists | 5 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 7 – 14 |
| Saves | 30 | 54 | 53 | 54 | 46 – 61 |
| Shots | 71 | 128 | 123 | 122 | 111 – 135 |
| Demos | 73 | 131 | 119 | 125 | 109 – 130 |
| MVPs | 6 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 7 – 13 |
From 20 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.
| Boost / min | 426.2 |
| Avg boost | 49.4 |
| Boost stolen / game | 674.7 |
| % time at 0 boost | 12.3% |
| Avg speed (uu/s) | 1636.5 |
| % supersonic | 21.5% |
| % time high in air | 4.2% |
| Avg distance to ball | 3178.1 |
| % time attacking third | 22.2% |
| Demos / game | 3.6 |
| Demos taken / game | 1.4 |
| Shooting % | 32.0% |
| Season | Tier | Games | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Boost/min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S21 | Veteran | 13 | 1.08 | 0.46 | 1.38 | 442 |
| S22 | Veteran | 33 | 0.82 | 0.7 | 1.48 | 437 |
| S23 | Veteran | 14 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 2.21 | 426 |
| S24 | Veteran | 28 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 1.21 | 436 |
| S25 | Veteran | 36 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1.33 | 418 |
| S26 | Rival | 20 | 1.15 | 0.25 | 1.5 | 426 |
Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.
| Stat | This season | Comparables median | Typical range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals/game | 1.15 | 0.79 | 0.69 – 0.89 |
| Assists/game | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.39 – 0.58 |
| Saves/game | 1.5 | 1.38 | 1.29 – 1.5 |
| Shots/game | 3.55 | 2.71 | 2.38 – 3.0 |
Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.
| Player | Season | Tier | Goals/g | Assists/g | Saves/g | Similarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sturmo. | S19 | Veteran | 1.12 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 2.98 |
| Soda. . | S25 | Veteran | 0.79 | 0.57 | 1.5 | 2.99 |
| The_Wheelman_95 | S21 | Veteran | 1.08 | 0.46 | 1.38 | 3.13 |
| Yami ^^ | S26 | Elite | 0.9 | 0.34 | 1.79 | 3.20 |
| Soda. . | S22 | Rival | 0.67 | 0.42 | 1.08 | 3.23 |
| Almost Magic Mike | S13 | Master | 1.08 | 0.58 | 1.67 | 3.35 |
| Soda. . | S26 | Rival | 0.77 | 0.74 | 1.26 | 3.35 |
| DEMOralize | S25 | Veteran | 0.62 | 0.57 | 1.11 | 3.41 |
| The_Wheelman_95 | S25 | Veteran | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1.33 | 3.44 |
| DEMOralize | S24 | Veteran | 0.81 | 0.66 | 1.3 | 3.46 |
Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.
Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.