ToastyPancakes_

Prospect - Blacksmiths - 19-13 (0.594)
👤 Career - also played as ERNxdd <3
32 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 32 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 32/100 Tier dominance: 99th (+2.7 SD) Projects as: Challenger ↑ Overskilled for Prospect Role: Striker / Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
12
38% of games
Shot %
37%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 430.16 13765
95th
Goals 1.28 41
96th
Assists 0.69 22
82nd
Saves 1.03 33
29th
Shots 3.47 111
98th
Demos 1.31 42
83rd

League ranking (per game, among 1213 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points430.16 #47 / 1213 #6 / 161
Goals1.28 #27 / 1213 #5 / 161
Assists0.69 #207 / 1213 #24 / 161
Saves1.03 #720 / 1213 #94 / 161
Demos1.31 #212 / 1213 #22 / 161

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (32 → ~53 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (34 games across 1 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 13765 22798 22376 22376 22229 – 22523
Goals 41 68 66 64 58 – 73
Assists 22 36 36 36 30 – 42
Saves 33 55 55 58 48 – 63
Shots 111 184 179 177 166 – 192
Demos 42 70 68 67 60 – 76
MVPs 12 20 19 19 15 – 23

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 98 /100

From 32 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 461.1
Avg boost 51.8
Boost stolen / game 657.1
% time at 0 boost 13.4%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1525.8
% supersonic 14.8%
% time high in air 5.6%
Avg distance to ball 2646.6
% time attacking third 21.6%
Demos / game 1.3
Demos taken / game 1.0
Shooting % 39.3%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S23Challenger34 0.530.621.53 442
S26Prospect32 1.280.691.03 461

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~42 OVR High confidence — inferred from 113 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 32.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)28541123-1210 48% 364
RSC (official)3315-11 58% 348
Non-RSC ranked 3v311331-51 38% 293
Non-RSC other27081077-1148 48% 367

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

Medium confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game1.28 1.15 1.11 – 1.21
Assists/game0.69 0.66 0.56 – 0.74
Saves/game1.03 1.19 1.12 – 1.25
Shots/game3.47 3.3 3.08 – 3.42

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Nezitic S26Master 1.210.611.04 1.06
Ecko S26Prospect 1.110.611.17 1.12
Rzemble S14Master 1.250.881.12 1.30
Aiden_23- S22Prospect 1.150.61.0 1.36
Mage S26Rival 1.270.61.13 1.39
P0lyph3m0us S26Contender 1.110.611.11 1.51
ThyChad_ S19Elite 1.190.561.19 1.52
WinterMajorChamp S25Master 1.040.731.23 1.52
sinoda_20 S21Rival 1.170.50.92 1.55
Froz3nSlack5r S19Contender 1.310.621.12 1.55

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.