Xcalibur9659

Prospect - Blacksmiths - 21-12 (0.636)
23 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 33 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 23/100 Tier dominance: 46th (-0.2 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
2
6% of games
Shot %
41%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 340.36 11232
56th
Goals 0.88 29
71st
Assists 0.52 17
48th
Saves 1.09 36
35th
Shots 2.12 70
29th
Demos 1.42 47
89th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points340.36 #500 / 1215 #59 / 161
Goals0.88 #274 / 1215 #39 / 161
Assists0.52 #509 / 1215 #68 / 161
Saves1.09 #691 / 1215 #85 / 161
Demos1.42 #160 / 1215 #14 / 161

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (33 → ~55 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (60 games across 2 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 11232 18720 18678 18678 18541 – 18815
Goals 29 48 48 47 41 – 55
Assists 17 28 28 28 23 – 34
Saves 36 60 61 61 53 – 68
Shots 70 117 118 114 107 – 129
Demos 47 78 76 75 68 – 85
MVPs 2 3 4 4 2 – 6

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 76 /100

From 29 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 299.1
Avg boost 57.4
Boost stolen / game 474.8
% time at 0 boost 5.4%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1427.1
% supersonic 7.4%
% time high in air 3.9%
Avg distance to ball 3046.2
% time attacking third 19.0%
Demos / game 1.6
Demos taken / game 0.7
Shooting % 42.0%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S23Challenger30 0.70.231.47 278
S25Prospect30 0.570.531.13 307
S26Prospect29 0.90.521.17 299

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.9 0.76 0.74 – 0.82
Assists/game0.52 0.45 0.42 – 0.53
Saves/game1.17 1.22 1.13 – 1.35
Shots/game2.17 2.23 2.12 – 2.3

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Shraggaholic S22Contender 0.740.531.13 0.98
Primed S20Challenger 0.750.51.38 1.05
Preaux. S23Challenger 0.960.411.23 1.06
SludgeMixFuzz S23Prospect 0.750.430.95 1.18
xNerdyGamer S26Contender 0.780.561.12 1.19
Chis S17Veteran 0.780.671.22 1.28
Chicken S20Rival 0.680.391.18 1.30
Pure_Pusher S22Challenger 1.00.421.15 1.31
BromzaTheOldMan S23Challenger 0.790.471.28 1.32
j_durv S25Contender 0.870.61.08 1.34

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.