ballerking2008

Challenger - Flailers - 8-11 (0.421)
38 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 19 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 38/100 Tier dominance: 54th (-0.1 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
21% of games
Shot %
30%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 396.42 7532
85th
Goals 0.84 16
65th
Assists 0.26 5
9th
Saves 2.0 38
95th
Shots 2.79 53
76th
Demos 0.58 11
23rd

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points396.42 #131 / 1215 #20 / 166
Goals0.84 #328 / 1215 #46 / 166
Assists0.26 #872 / 1215 #121 / 166
Saves2.0 #24 / 1215 #3 / 166
Demos0.58 #768 / 1215 #102 / 166

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (19 → ~32 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). . Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) 80% range
Points 7532 12685 12473 12364 – 12583
Goals 16 27 27 22 – 32
Assists 5 8 9 6 – 13
Saves 38 64 61 54 – 69
Shots 53 89 88 79 – 97
Demos 11 19 20 15 – 25
MVPs 4 7 7 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 74 /100

From 15 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 401.3
Avg boost 49.4
Boost stolen / game 519.4
% time at 0 boost 10.8%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1490.0
% supersonic 13.0%
% time high in air 5.4%
Avg distance to ball 2971.8
% time attacking third 19.3%
Demos / game 0.6
Demos taken / game 0.9
Shooting % 31.8%

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game1.0 1.0 0.91 – 1.0
Assists/game0.27 0.38 0.25 – 0.43
Saves/game1.67 1.62 1.57 – 1.75
Shots/game3.2 2.98 2.77 – 3.25

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
MZFdoom S26Elite 0.830.31.6 0.98
Vvreze S22Prospect 1.00.381.62 1.08
depressed vibez S20Veteran 1.050.31.55 1.16
cowtooth S20Rival 0.920.421.58 1.20
Shxde S24Master 0.890.411.57 1.32
zack S21Elite 0.880.381.62 1.33
Percussive3260 S21Veteran 1.250.251.62 1.33
lovegreyhounds S22Veteran 0.960.51.67 1.34
snizdrift S20Premier 1.050.51.65 1.35
AS-17. S23Challenger 0.910.31.52 1.39

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.