brillo_padd

Prospect - Aetherborn - 17-15 (0.531)
21 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 32 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 21/100 Tier dominance: 32nd (-0.5 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Role player
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
12% of games
Shot %
29%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 295.5 9456
26th
Goals 0.75 24
50th
Assists 0.38 12
20th
Saves 0.97 31
21st
Shots 2.56 82
57th
Demos 0.66 21
29th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points295.5 #777 / 1215 #99 / 161
Goals0.75 #455 / 1215 #64 / 161
Assists0.38 #761 / 1215 #103 / 161
Saves0.97 #800 / 1215 #105 / 161
Demos0.66 #717 / 1215 #94 / 161

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (32 → ~53 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (131 games across 3 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 9456 15662 15809 15809 15683 – 15935
Goals 24 40 40 40 33 – 46
Assists 12 20 21 20 16 – 25
Saves 31 51 52 50 45 – 60
Shots 82 136 135 136 124 – 147
Demos 21 35 36 34 30 – 42
MVPs 4 7 7 7 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 16 /100

From 28 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 323.4
Avg boost 55.7
Boost stolen / game 498.6
% time at 0 boost 5.3%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1388.0
% supersonic 6.1%
% time high in air 2.1%
Avg distance to ball 3104.6
% time attacking third 21.9%
Demos / game 0.6
Demos taken / game 1.1
Shooting % 34.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S23Challenger47 0.830.380.74 307
S24Challenger33 0.760.360.76 319
S25Prospect51 0.980.410.86 336
S26Prospect28 0.750.251.0 323

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.77 0.8 0.71 – 0.88
Assists/game0.61 0.61 0.57 – 0.67
Saves/game0.84 0.89 0.82 – 1.0
Shots/game2.39 2.4 2.3 – 2.53

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Zachs Vibes S19Challenger 0.730.550.82 0.69
bernatra S14Amateur 0.760.610.94 0.78
Twixxle_ S24Challenger 0.80.60.84 0.95
Canadian Things S26Veteran 0.550.550.84 0.98
Pure_Pusher S24Challenger 0.90.570.91 1.08
YRA S20Rival 0.80.671.13 1.09
TechFour S17Contender 0.70.70.9 1.11
renightly S25Rival 0.690.540.88 1.12
thatBUGZBUNNY S18Prospect 0.750.620.75 1.13
PoupSoup S22Rival 0.920.581.17 1.14

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.