dyl

Challenger - Stingrays - 13-15 (0.464)
41 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 28 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 41/100 Tier dominance: 74th (+0.6 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Playmaker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
14% of games
Shot %
33%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 366.21 10254
70th
Goals 0.79 22
56th
Assists 0.86 24
93rd
Saves 1.32 37
56th
Shots 2.36 66
39th
Demos 0.79 22
41st

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points366.21 #298 / 1215 #40 / 166
Goals0.79 #417 / 1215 #57 / 166
Assists0.86 #61 / 1215 #9 / 166
Saves1.32 #453 / 1215 #59 / 166
Demos0.79 #606 / 1215 #77 / 166

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (28 → ~47 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (160 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 10254 17212 17107 17107 16976 – 17238
Goals 22 37 37 37 31 – 43
Assists 24 40 39 38 33 – 45
Saves 37 62 62 63 54 – 70
Shots 66 111 111 111 101 – 122
Demos 22 37 38 37 31 – 44
MVPs 4 7 7 7 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 65 /100

From 24 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 394.1
Avg boost 51.3
Boost stolen / game 581.1
% time at 0 boost 11.5%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1468.8
% supersonic 11.0%
% time high in air 4.2%
Avg distance to ball 2849.7
% time attacking third 22.3%
Demos / game 0.8
Demos taken / game 0.9
Shooting % 32.0%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Challenger4 1.250.01.75 401
S21Challenger20 0.750.251.15 357
S22Challenger35 0.860.691.49 404
S23Challenger49 0.780.391.35 405
S24Rival13 1.380.231.23 403
S25Challenger43 0.810.651.74 404
S26Challenger24 0.790.791.25 394

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~55 OVR High confidence — inferred from 841 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 41.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)69462648-2969 47% 355
RSC (official)3013-14 48% 366
Non-RSC ranked 3v3841311-322 49% 314
Non-RSC other60752324-2633 47% 360

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.79 0.76 0.74 – 0.85
Assists/game0.79 0.75 0.69 – 0.79
Saves/game1.25 1.19 1.17 – 1.35
Shots/game2.25 2.44 2.31 – 2.58

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Cognitixn S26Rival 0.830.781.56 1.00
AirWiggle S21Rival 0.750.691.19 1.02
AZoroARK S23Prospect 0.750.811.07 1.05
z2kay S20Rival 0.750.811.25 1.09
SE AT WORK S24Prospect 0.830.681.19 1.10
(P|F)ineapple S24Elite 0.670.651.33 1.10
Larkspur S24Challenger 0.930.781.19 1.11
FrogDrivesCar S24Rival 0.70.811.37 1.12
Swax S23Master 0.740.781.17 1.13
PoupSoup S25Rival 0.750.761.07 1.14

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.