virchowtriad

Contender - Mustangs - 21-7 (0.750)
17 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 28 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 17/100 Tier dominance: 98th (+2.0 SD) Projects as: Prospect ↑ Overskilled for Contender Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
15
54% of games
Shot %
40%

Per-game production (percentile within Contender)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 423.04 11845
95th
Goals 1.39 39
98th
Assists 0.39 11
30th
Saves 1.25 35
60th
Shots 3.46 97
97th
Demos 0.57 16
32nd

League ranking (per game, among 1213 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Contender
Points423.04 #65 / 1213 #6 / 134
Goals1.39 #13 / 1213 #2 / 134
Assists0.39 #726 / 1213 #78 / 134
Saves1.25 #507 / 1213 #43 / 134
Demos0.57 #761 / 1213 #76 / 134

Season projection

High confidence

64% of the season is played (28 → ~44 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). . Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) 80% range
Points 11845 18614 18234 18111 – 18357
Goals 39 61 59 52 – 66
Assists 11 17 18 14 – 22
Saves 35 55 55 48 – 61
Shots 97 152 148 137 – 159
Demos 16 25 26 21 – 31
MVPs 15 24 22 18 – 26

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 69 /100

From 28 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 388.0
Avg boost 53.5
Boost stolen / game 396.8
% time at 0 boost 13.7%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1407.9
% supersonic 8.9%
% time high in air 2.2%
Avg distance to ball 3245.4
% time attacking third 18.0%
Demos / game 0.6
Demos taken / game 1.2
Shooting % 40.7%

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

Medium confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game1.39 1.29 1.12 – 1.38
Assists/game0.39 0.48 0.38 – 0.5
Saves/game1.25 1.27 1.21 – 1.4
Shots/game3.46 3.16 3.0 – 3.38

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
LoneDrifter. S22Prospect 1.420.421.42 1.25
RyGuy2flie S26Contender 1.280.441.34 1.36
BromzaTheOldMan S21Prospect 1.190.51.38 1.50
kbm grifter S17Rival 1.380.251.5 1.61
Chung S13Rival 1.380.51.5 1.64
CLEM5ON3_ S18Elite 1.380.381.5 1.68
Korrello S26Contender 1.280.440.96 1.83
Canadian S17Elite 1.620.381.25 1.86
Thenetkiller27 S26Contender 1.080.541.58 1.87
ReedyOrange S17Challenger 1.120.51.62 1.88

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.