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Prospect - Honey Badgers - 20-10 (0.667)
22 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 30 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 22/100 Tier dominance: 43rd (-0.2 SD) Projects as: Prospect Role: Striker
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
4
13% of games
Shot %
42%

Per-game production (percentile within Prospect)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 354.33 10630
65th
Goals 0.9 27
74th
Assists 0.53 16
51st
Saves 1.37 41
68th
Shots 2.17 65
31st
Demos 0.77 23
38th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Prospect
Points354.33 #385 / 1215 #46 / 161
Goals0.9 #248 / 1215 #35 / 161
Assists0.53 #475 / 1215 #65 / 161
Saves1.37 #400 / 1215 #42 / 161
Demos0.77 #621 / 1215 #81 / 161

Season projection

High confidence

60% of the season is played (30 → ~50 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (148 games across 5 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 10630 17717 17617 17617 17484 – 17749
Goals 27 45 44 44 38 – 51
Assists 16 27 27 27 22 – 32
Saves 41 68 68 67 60 – 76
Shots 65 108 109 108 99 – 120
Demos 23 38 39 39 33 – 45
MVPs 4 7 7 7 4 – 9

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 62 /100

From 26 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 356.3
Avg boost 51.9
Boost stolen / game 500.7
% time at 0 boost 7.6%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1449.5
% supersonic 8.5%
% time high in air 2.8%
Avg distance to ball 3136.7
% time attacking third 16.9%
Demos / game 0.7
Demos taken / game 0.9
Shooting % 42.0%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S20Prospect54 0.590.820.94 339
S22Prospect10 0.70.50.9 340
S23Prospect52 0.640.441.27 349
S24Challenger12 0.50.50.83 362
S25Prospect20 1.00.30.95 360
S26Prospect26 0.850.581.42 356

Beyond RSC - lifetime & other play

External skill estimate: ~29 OVR High confidence — inferred from 3158 public ranked-3v3 games (their score/game maps to OVR; this signal correlates ~0.71 with RSC OVR). Their actual RSC OVR is 22.
SourceGames RecordWin % Score/g
Lifetime (all)115444357-4805 48% 312
RSC (official)4823-15 61% 315
Non-RSC ranked 3v331581101-1345 45% 272
Non-RSC other83383233-3445 48% 328

From public ballchasing replays (score-based, so no goals/saves breakdown). Non-RSC play tracks a player's overall level well but not their standing within a tier — see the ratings notes. Only players with a Steam id and uploaded public games appear here.

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.85 0.76 0.71 – 0.85
Assists/game0.58 0.55 0.5 – 0.58
Saves/game1.42 1.42 1.29 – 1.52
Shots/game2.12 2.19 2.08 – 2.33

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Dondo RF S18Challenger 0.70.551.4 0.68
ILUVPINEAPPLPZZA S20Challenger 0.770.461.42 0.90
xxDaddysHerexx S19Challenger 0.890.51.33 0.90
KittyMeowMeow360 S19Amateur 0.850.671.15 0.94
TheBLKBoy S22Contender 0.710.551.21 0.94
LiTeS 0uT S26Contender 0.820.641.27 1.01
ChadGPT S20Challenger 0.70.51.6 1.04
TDogPlayz S20Prospect 0.860.481.3 1.10
Ice Phoenix S23Veteran 0.70.571.34 1.12
Wheelchair {LFLegs} S26Challenger 0.80.61.6 1.12

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.