l-DoodleRob-l

Challenger - Shade - 8-12 (0.400)
37 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 20 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 37/100 Tier dominance: 48th (-0.2 SD) Projects as: Challenger Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
3
15% of games
Shot %
29%

Per-game production (percentile within Challenger)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 375.25 7505
74th
Goals 0.8 16
59th
Assists 0.6 12
63rd
Saves 1.4 28
68th
Shots 2.75 55
71st
Demos 0.4 8
7th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Challenger
Points375.25 #244 / 1215 #35 / 166
Goals0.8 #391 / 1215 #54 / 166
Assists0.6 #344 / 1215 #46 / 166
Saves1.4 #355 / 1215 #42 / 166
Demos0.4 #877 / 1215 #123 / 166

Season projection

Medium confidence

60% of the season is played (20 → ~33 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). . Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) 80% range
Points 7505 12383 12257 12150 – 12364
Goals 16 26 26 21 – 31
Assists 12 20 20 15 – 24
Saves 28 46 46 39 – 52
Shots 55 91 90 81 – 99
Demos 8 13 15 11 – 20
MVPs 3 5 5 3 – 7

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 17 /100

From 16 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 370.8
Avg boost 52.3
Boost stolen / game 415.4
% time at 0 boost 9.1%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1524.9
% supersonic 13.5%
% time high in air 4.6%
Avg distance to ball 3050.7
% time attacking third 17.5%
Demos / game 0.4
Demos taken / game 1.6
Shooting % 26.5%

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

High confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.56 0.59 0.5 – 0.69
Assists/game0.69 0.61 0.57 – 0.69
Saves/game1.38 1.41 1.25 – 1.47
Shots/game2.31 2.37 2.14 – 2.44

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
Clyde S22Veteran 0.60.681.4 0.73
Faolaen S21Veteran 0.50.671.58 0.88
AoS Arctic S17Veteran 0.50.751.38 1.09
Skotos S18Veteran 0.580.751.42 1.13
D_e_r_k S26Rival 0.620.691.38 1.14
chimmy S17Veteran 0.50.751.33 1.14
ttv rapidsonn S26Rival 0.650.751.3 1.15
spooky S24Premier 0.70.81.5 1.18
p0larbear S22Master 0.730.681.46 1.21
LegitMrMouse S25Rival 0.470.611.49 1.26

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.