CrucialUrchin

Contender - Aeronauts - 9-17 (0.346)
7 OVR
overall rating (0–100) · 26 games · how is this calculated?
Overall rating 7/100 Tier dominance: 18th (-0.8 SD) Projects as: Contender Role: Anchor
How are these calculated?

Composite: each per-game stat (goals, assists, saves, shots, demos, shooting %, MVPs) is turned into a z-score vs the player's tier peers, weighted by how much it correlates with winning, summed, then shrunk toward the tier average for small samples (games / (games + 8)).

Tier dominance: that composite expressed two ways - a percentile within the tier (rank), and a margin in standard deviations above the tier average (how big an outlier). The margin is what flags genuine outliers vs. someone merely top of a tight tier.

Overall rating (0-100): the composite plus a tier-strength bonus (Premier counts most), turned into a league-wide percentile - so it's comparable across tiers, unlike tier dominance.

Projects as: re-sorting every player by overall skill into the tiers' real sizes, the tier this player would land in. Projecting up a tier (and being an outlier) = "overskilled." A model estimate.

MVPs
3
12% of games
Shot %
31%

Per-game production (percentile within Contender)

StatPer gameTotalPercentile in tier
Points 294.54 7658
32nd
Goals 0.62 16
35th
Assists 0.35 9
22nd
Saves 1.27 33
67th
Shots 2.0 52
25th
Demos 0.96 25
68th

League ranking (per game, among 1215 players)

StatPer gameOverall rankRank in Contender
Points294.54 #781 / 1215 #76 / 134
Goals0.62 #681 / 1215 #72 / 134
Assists0.35 #803 / 1215 #87 / 134
Saves1.27 #503 / 1215 #37 / 134
Demos0.96 #460 / 1215 #35 / 134

Season projection

High confidence

64% of the season is played (26 → ~40 games). Projected (this season) blends the current rate with the tier average (regression to the mean). Projected (all data) instead regresses toward the player’s own career rate (67 games across 3 past seasons). Pace is the naive "keep current rate" number. Range = 80% prediction interval on the this-season projection.

Stat Now Pace Projected (season) Projected (all data) 80% range
Points 7658 11782 11856 11856 11757 – 11954
Goals 16 25 25 24 20 – 30
Assists 9 14 14 14 11 – 18
Saves 33 51 50 51 44 – 57
Shots 52 80 81 78 73 – 89
Demos 25 38 38 37 33 – 43
MVPs 3 5 5 5 3 – 7

Advanced stats (ballchasing)

Advanced OVR 15 /100

From 21 ballchasing replays (matches + scrims). Advanced OVR is a percentile among the 762 players with enough replay data - separate from the box-score OVR above.

Boost / min 438.1
Avg boost 45.8
Boost stolen / game 382.8
% time at 0 boost 17.5%
Avg speed (uu/s) 1407.3
% supersonic 10.8%
% time high in air 1.4%
Avg distance to ball 2858.1
% time attacking third 16.9%
Demos / game 0.9
Demos taken / game 0.8
Shooting % 31.1%

Career history (season over season)

SeasonTierGamesGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gBoost/min
S23Prospect25 0.240.441.52 416
S24Prospect9 1.00.561.22 425
S25Prospect33 0.580.271.12 429
S26Contender21 0.520.291.14 438

Historical analysis - data: Official · All seasons (change in the nav)

Comparable-based outlook

Medium confidence

Where the 25 most similar players from 11 completed past season(s) landed for each per-game stat (median + middle-50% range). A "players like you finished here" anchor that complements the pace projection above.

StatThis seasonComparables medianTypical range
Goals/game0.52 0.5 0.43 – 0.61
Assists/game0.29 0.38 0.29 – 0.42
Saves/game1.14 1.21 1.08 – 1.31
Shots/game1.62 1.75 1.53 – 1.88

Most similar players (across RSC history)

Nearest matches by per-game production & play-style (goals, assists, saves, shots, boost, speed, positioning, demos), standardized across 6659 player-seasons. Lower distance = more similar.

PlayerSeasonTierGoals/gAssists/gSaves/gSimilarity
CrucialUrchin S25Prospect 0.580.271.12 1.28
Pulsa4r S26Contender 0.430.431.1 1.33
Benjamen W. S17Prospect 0.50.251.12 1.33
Salty Num Num S25Contender 0.640.361.41 1.39
TTV/DucksNotKeys S26Amateur 0.440.331.0 1.50
KittyMeowMeow360 S20Amateur 0.50.251.5 1.61
CBHIPHOP77 S13Amateur 0.670.290.94 1.70
Salty Num Num S26Contender 0.310.470.91 1.73
JonathanVanDyk S24Challenger 0.50.311.0 1.74
Salty Num Num S24Prospect 0.580.260.95 1.74

Descriptive comparables - cross-season stat scales can shift, and players who changed names between seasons won't link.


Data source: live (rscna.com) - standings & schedule refresh hourly.